Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231159
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
659 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO ERN ND. LIGHT WINDS.
NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SKIES CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SUNSHINE TODAY WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST INTO ERN ND THIS AFTN. WITH
NEARLY FULL SUN AND A LIGHT AND A TAD WARMER LOWER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES (925 MB ESPECIALLY) EXPECT A HIGHS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH MID 40S EAST TO LOWER-MID 50S SOUTHWEST. WINDS
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN PAST DAYS AS RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE
RED RIVER AT 18Z. MUCH WELCOME RELIEF.

SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
WESTERN ALBERTA TODAY WHILE A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST FROM WESTERN MONTANA AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER IS GOOD 850 MB WARM ADVECTION
AND DECENT 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. IT FORMS OVER SE ND 00Z-06Z FRI
PERIOD AND THEM MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE
INTIALLY WILL BE LACKING...BUT DO EXPECT A GROWING AREA OF MID
LEVEL PRECIPITATION ECHOES TO DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AND GROW IN
COVERAGE 06Z-12Z FRI PERIOD AS THEY SHIFT EAST INTO WCNTRL MN. 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A BIT WARMER SFC-850 MB LAYER THAN PAST
RUNS WITH BUFKIT GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOSTLY LIQUID WITH ANY
PRECIP...WITH BEST CHC OF SOME MIX (IP/SN) OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN NW/WCNTRL MN (LAKE ITASCA-BEMIDJI
AREA INTO ERN BECKER-HUBBARD) LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
USING THE TOP DOWN METHOD FOR PTYPE GIVES MOSTLY -RA FOR ERN ND
AND THE RRV WITH THAT MIX FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS WHERE A HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY AFTN-NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAINI SOME LOW POPS FOR -RA IN MOSTLY WCNTRL MN THRU FRI
NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN AS 850 MB LAYER
MOISTENS UP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

DIMINISHED POPS FRI NIGHT AND MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT BUT
REMAINING RATHER CLOUDY. TEMPS WARMER AT NIGHT BUT HIGH TEMPS TO
SOME DEGREE HEDGE ON IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURS. THAT
WOULD APPEAR PSBL ESP NE ND/NRN MN WHERE A WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD
IN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE
REGION...BUT MODELS VARYING ON PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES.
THUS...HAVE USED A BLENDED SOLN FOR THIS FORECAST.

RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARMER AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE EARLY
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND
ENHANCE CHANCES FOR PCPN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A QUICK
SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE WAVE...BUT THE OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBOUND BRINGING MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE
REGION...WITH LITTLE PCPN EXPECTED...NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SKIES CLEAR TO START THE DAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER AND LIGHT SOUTH WIND WEST OF THE RED RIVER. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO ERN ND MID TO LATE AFTN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA THIS EVE. MID CLOUDS WILL FORM THIS EVENING WITH BEST
RISK OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FARGO AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN A
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION 5-10 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE






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