Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 182004
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
304 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AREA OF PCPN THAT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEEING A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER MOVING NORTHWARD NOW...BUT REALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH GETTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FA UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUN. THEN THE MODELS SHOW TWO
DISTINCT AREAS LIFTING INTO THE FA...ONE FROM THE NW AND THE OTHER
FROM THE SOUTH. THE NW AREA OF PCPN WILL FINALLY MERGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN ONE BUT THE SOUTHERN ONE WILL BE THE ONE THAT HAS THE
HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHER PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER SOUTHEAST ND AND MOST OF THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF MN. STILL LOOKING AT AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES
OVER THAT AREA AND LESS WEST OF THERE. ON SUNDAY THE MAIN QUESTION
IS HOW FAST THE AREA OF PCPN LIFTS THRU THE FA. OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOW A LITTLE SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE NAM12/SREF...BASICALLY
KEEPING STEADY RAIN OVER NW MN THRU AT LEAST 18Z SUN THEN TAPERING
BACK. NAM12/SREF WOULD HAVE MOST OF IT OVER BY 15Z SUNDAY AND THEN
MUCH LESS DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS A LITTLE BREEZY AND
TEMPS ALSO BEGIN TO DROP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. LOOKING AT A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE BY LATE NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT
AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN GRASSY AREAS IN THE NORTH AND MAYBE
A FEW FLAKES TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

STILL LOOKING AT SOME WRAPAROUND PCPN INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA. AGAIN TEMPS COOL ENOUGH AT NIGHT
THAT LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE. COULD END UP WITH AN INCH OR TWO
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. OTHERWISE WINDS
REALLY CRANK UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO LOOKING AT A RAW DAY
OVERALL. LOWER WINDS TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NOSE IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
ONLY SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST. FOR THIS REGION...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM EACH DAY TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

CIGS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...GRADUALLY LOWERING THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF RAIN
IS STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL AFFECT KFAR AND KBJI...WITH LESS
INTENSE RAINFALL TO THE NORTHWEST. THUS...ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT KFAR AND KBJI TONIGHT...AND LIKELY
KTVF AS WELL...WITH KGFK ON THE EDGE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...TG






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