Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 200435
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1135 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN ND. IN ADDITION SOME
WEAK RETURNS SAGGING SOUTH OUT OF FAR SE MB. WHILE MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS SLIM WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLD POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING TO COVER ABOVE RADAR RETURNS. APPEARS BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER BECOMING LESS AND LESS SO HELD ON TO CLOUD COVER
LONGER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE FA AS -RA WEAKENING
IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

500MB TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE BAUDETTE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO CANADA AS A RESULT...AND THE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NOT SURE ABOUT CLOUD
COVER...BUT MIXING SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL NOT WEAKEN. MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST
WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. MODEL
925MB-850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW IN THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DURING PEAK HEATING
WHEN THE LOWEST LAYER GETS INTO THE MID-30S. AT ANY
RATE...SNOWFALL RATES APPEAR LIGHT...AND SOME MELTING SHOULD
OCCUR ON WARM GROUND SURFACES. MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING MAY
GET AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. TO THE
WEST...COLD POOL ALOFT LIKELY WILL LEAD TO ISOLD-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS.

WIND POTENTIAL...WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON MONDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
(ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). MIXING POTENTIAL OF WINDS ALOFT
TO THE SFC IS UNCERTAIN SO NOT SURE HOW LONG ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS WOULD LAST. STILL SOME TIME TO MONITOR AND ASSESS BEFORE
NEEDING TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA. FIRE WEATHER WATCH
SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE
FIRE WX SECTION).

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN FA WILL
EXIT. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY
(STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE DEGREE OF TEMP
RECOVERY AS THE 500MB LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. THE GFS AND GEM
KEEP A FLATTER WEST-NW FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS RIDGING
DEVELOPING MUCH QUICKER. THEREFORE THERMAL FIELDS ARE QUITE A BIT
DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW WARMING TREND
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH IS FINE FOR NOW. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY UNTIL SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CIGS AND WIND MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CIGS
CONTINUE FROM VALLEY WEST WITH SOME SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WITHIN
VALLEY(GFK/FAR). FARTHER EAST CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR WITH IFR OVER
THE FAR EAST(BJI). AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST VFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME
MORE PREVALENT FROM VALLEY WEST WITH SOME CLEARING PSBL DVL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FAR EAST MORE UNCERTAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING VFR CIGS BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON. ANY PCPN LOOKS
TO SPOTTY TO MENTION IN EASTERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. WITH RECENT RAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF RESPITE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE...WITH WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MILES PER HOUR. NOT EXPECTING AN INVERSION TO SET UP AT
THIS TIME...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL OVERNIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED IN MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING
AND THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA DURING THAT PERIOD. IF MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 PERCENT IN THE ZONES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...CONDITIONS WOULD MEET CRITICAL CRITERIA. THUS...A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM TOWNER COUNTY SOUTH TO
SARGENT COUNTY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR NDZ006-014-024-028-038-049-052.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.