Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 312009
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
309 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES/PCPN CHANCES AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER MAINLY ON POST
FRONTAL PCPN POTENTIAL THURSDAY OTHERWISE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL MT SHIFTS TO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND BY MORNING.
THIS AND APPROACHING THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP MINIMUMS MILDER
OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NE DURING THE DAY REACHING THE MN/ONTARIO
BORDER BY EVENING. ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS FA
DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY FROPA OVER OUR FA AS TIMING
OF BOUNDARY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST AT PRIME HEATING THAT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP E-SE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH FA IN WARM
SECTOR WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MOST IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF THE VALLEY. AT THIS POINT
FEEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BLO ADVISORY LIMITS BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR. OF MORE CONCERN WITH BE LOWERING RH VALUES AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING WIND AND DRY FUELS CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY.

COLUMN COOLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER TRUE COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE AT OR BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES. MODELS DIFFER ON POTENTIAL FOR
POST FRONTAL PCPN SO DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT POPS MUCH KEEP BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE FA.

MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING -RA/SN DISSIPATING AT
SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING A WIDE H5 TROF
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR OR SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. MODELS SHOW BAROCLINIC ZONE
SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD...INTO THE AREA...DURING THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY A BIT MORE BULLISH ON OVERALL QPF FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH BOTH MODELS AT LEAST SHOWING A WETTING
AMOUNT OF LIGHT RAIN AND AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EXPECT MAINLY FAIR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN
WESTERN MN WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FORENOON...IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTING ABOVE 35 MPH AT TIMES
WEST OF THE VALLEY. IN ADDITION...DEEP MIXING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 800 MB
AND WARM SFC TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR OR ABOVE 60 WILL HELP RH FALL INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER. THE COMBINATION
OF VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH...COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS MAY LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...GUST
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI





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