Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161744
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA...BUT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CLOUDS DECREASING BEHIND THE NARROW BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE SHOWERS THAT POPPED UP EARLIER THIS MORNING NEAR FOSSTON HAVE
DISSIPATED...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS UNLIKELY. HAVE
PULLED POPS FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUDS AS THERE ARE TWO SEPARATE AREAS FORM THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH CLEARING IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY
BETWEEN. THINK THAT CLOUD COVER OVERALL SHOULD SLIDE FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION EVENT THAT IS PRONGED SAT
INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS QPF
EVENT...THAT SHOULD PROVIDE BENEFICIAL RAINS FOR AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN AREAS
AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE VALLEY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER TODAY...AND WINDS NOT AS
STRONG...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRYING
COLUMN. TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING.
THERE WILL BE ABOUT 25KT TO MIX IN THE NORTH...AND IT WILL BE
PRETTY DRY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS IF WINDS
GET STRONGER THAN PROGGED SINCE RH VALUES SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER DRY NIGHT WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE KICKER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST...ALONG WITH PWATS POOLING SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1 INCH. THERE
SHOULD BE A BAND OF QPF WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AND
MOVING NORTH WITH STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INCREASING
LLJ. WE WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS BY SAT NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF
THE VALLEY...WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 0.50 INCH OR MORE OF
BENEFICIAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

FOR SUN THROUGH WED...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH AMPLIFY OVER WESTERN
CANADA/ONTARIO- GREAT LAKES AREA THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AFTER DAY 5. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THEN
THE GFS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE TRENDING SOUTH AND WEST
OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS WITH UPPER WAVE CLOSING OFF. SO MOST OF
THE PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO ON SUN AND WED AND DECREASED
A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MON. HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED ONE TO THREE
DEGREES FOR TUE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS A WIND SHIFT RELATED TO SFC TROUGH
CURRENTLY ALONG A BDE-CKN-GWR LINE. SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY
AND SW WINDS AT FAR AND BJI WILL SHIFT NW. BAND OF MID LEVEL CIGS
BEHIND TROUGH WILL BRING TEMPO BKN080-100 CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RRV THIS AFTN...BUT SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE BREEZY NW WINDS BEHIND SFC TROUGH WILL SETTLE DOWN DURING
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER





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