Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 150436
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1136 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS TRIMMED BACK ON WIND SPEEDS A BIT
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER RIDGING MOVING OVER THE PLAINS WILL HEAD OFF INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS AND THE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE TIGHT. WINDS HAVE
BEEN STARTING TO GUST ABOVE 20 MPH FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WESTWARD...AND RH ACROSS THE REGION HAS BEEN QUITE LOW THE TEENS TO
EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY VALUES SEEN THIS AFTERNOON.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...WE
SHOULD DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING WINDS TO COME DOWN AND
FALLING TEMPS WILL HELP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RISE.

TOMORROW...THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
ROCKIES...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
WITH SOME RELAXING TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE 925MB WINDS AROUND 40 KTS AND THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF MIXING WITH A DEEP ADIABATIC LAYER. THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND OTHER SOURCES OF SUBSIDENCE
THOUGH. HAVE SOME PRETTY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR 30 KTS IN THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND
HEADLINES FOR NOW. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM
ALTHOUGH TEMPERED A BIT WITH MORE HIGH CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN CUT OFF LOW WILL STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST...BUT A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA
WILL HELP PUSH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AND A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN GETTING MORE AND MORE SPARSE WITH PRECIP
ALONG THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE PATTERN LATELY THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME 20-30 POPS AS THE SFC
TROUGH COMES THROUGH BUT DOES NOT SEEM THAT IT WILL BE A HEAVY
PRECIP PRODUCER AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GFS TRIES TO BRING THE CUT OFF UPPER
LOW INTO SD...BUT IS AN OUTLIER WITH THE REST OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND THE SREF MEAN ALL KEEPING THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE DOES DIG DOWN INTO THE REGION...BUT
MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST PRECIP EXTENDS
INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGIONS. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING
FOR FRIDAY FOR HIT AND MISS SHOWERS. TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER
WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK
LIKE MORE ACTIVE WX FROM MID WEEK ON...WITH A SW RIDGE PROVIDING
A BREAK FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SAT NIGHT MODELS TRACK A STRONG
SFC LOW ACROSS SRN CANADA WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION. NW FLOW PATTERN THEN SETS UP AND BRINGS LOW POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. PERIODS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT
NIGHT TO HAVE SOME WINTRY WEATHER...HOWEVER THERMAL PROFILES THIS
FAR OUT ARE QUESTIONABLE. AS DAYTIME HIGH AVERAGES EXTEND INTO THE
MID 50S...MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG SOUTH WINDS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WITH 25 TO 30KT SUSTAINED AND
HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VERY DRY AIR...RH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY (GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) ALONG AND WEST OF THE RRV
THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE THE RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. FUELS ARE
DRY AREA WIDE...THOUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
FROM THE RRV WESTWARD.

STRONG...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
MIXING EXPECTED UP TO NEAR 800 MB AND A FAIRLY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW UP ACROSS S CANADA. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY WELL
ABOVE 40 MPH. WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S AND
STILL A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...MIN RH IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE IS
FORECAST...LOWEST EASTWARD. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE REGION FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
     052>054.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI





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