Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFSD 161110
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SHOULD END UP BEING A PRETTY NICE THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THUS GENERALLY THINKING WE STAY DRY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TOWARDS
THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. WILL LIKELY
STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THINK SOME PEAKS OF SUN ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS A BIT TRICKY GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER...BUT WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 9C...THINK MOST OF US WILL END UP AROUND
70. WILL FINALLY BE A DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS WELL...WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY STAYING UNDER 10 MPH. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...EXPECTING LOWS TONIGHT TO STAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.
BETTER SHOWER THREAT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
GRADUALLY SEE ITS EFFECTS FELT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS DEEPER LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. AT THIS TIME FRIDAY DURING THE DAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. LATEST
SOUNDINGS NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF DEVELOPMENT EITHER BEING A BIT
CAPPED OR SIMPLY NOT SUGGESTING QUITE ENOUGH INSTABILITY. ALSO
LOOKING AT WEAK RIDGING DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

A WEAK WAVE WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE MAIN LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD BRING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED SOME QUARTER INCH
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND MERGES. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS
DURING THIS TIME AND WITH THE AMOUNTS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT QUITE A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD SEE A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN ACKNOWLEDGING THE COLDER PATTERN FOR NEXT
WEEK...STARTING ON SUNDAY. ALL MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON MERGING
SOUTHERN CUT OFF LOW WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH IN TURN
DEEPENS THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRAGS DOWN COLDER
AIR. EVEN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT HAS HIGH AGREEMENT IN THIS COLDER
PATTERN SO THE CHANCES FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IS PRETTY HIGH. OVERALL WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT GETTING INTO LATE
APRIL IT DOES NOT TAKE A WHOLE LOT TO HEAT OUT A BIT AND GET
CUMULUS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS
WITH THIS AND SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AT A LATER TIME. WILL
LIKELY SEE NORTHWEST WINDS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY GUSTING TO 35 TO
40 MPH...BRINGING FAIRLY CHILLY CONDITIONS AFTER WHAT LOOKS LIKE
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...BUT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF
SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.