Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 270852
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF TODAYS WEATHER IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY. AFTER VERY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BY MIDDAY AND DID BUMP UP SPEEDS A TAD COMPARED TO GUIDANCE VALUES
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES DUE TO DRY AIR AND GOOD MIXING. SPEAKING OF
WHICH...THE AVERAGED MIXED DEPTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
REACHES ABOUT 800MB...THEREFORE WARMED READINGS FROM THAT LEVEL
WHICH STILL PRODUCES HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT BEGINS TO EXERT
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER MAINLY IN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT WHERE SATURATION REACHES BETWEEN 750-700MB.
LOWS COULD TANK SOME IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES IN NORTHWEST IA WHERE
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND THE AIR DRY...COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD
BE A LACK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THEREFORE PREFERRED THE GUIDANCE
VALUES WHICH HAD 30S IN THE LOW LYING LOCATIONS FOR NORTHWEST IA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE...WITH FAIRLY
LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE AND BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER.  MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
INSTABILITY WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES WITH THE FROPA.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE
NAM HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN FALLING IN THE
MIDDLE.  REGARDLESS...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HAVE LOWERED
FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY BASED ON 850 HPA TEMPS AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE BEING TOO COOL ON HIGHS AS OF
LATE...HAVE SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

FRIDAY IS A TOUGH CALL AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED THEREFORE
LEADING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.  CUT POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW MODEL AGREEMENT.
OVERALL...APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIRTY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA.  CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS  WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY CREATED
ELEVATED STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE LEFT POPS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



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