Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 050844
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
344 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED WELL SOUTH OVER IOWA
AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE TOO QUICK BRINGING THE HIGHER DEW POINTS BACK...BUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON 50S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN AND WRN MN. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS...BUT CHANCES LOOK
PRETTY LOW WITH WEAK FORCING. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME
TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. STILL...AS
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE...FRONTOLYSIS WILL LIMIT FORCING.
MODELS SHOW RATHER MEAGER QPF TONIGHT...CERTAINLY COMPARED TO WHAT
THEY WERE SHOWING A FEW DAYS AGO. THE WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW ADVERTISE
ONLY A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH WITH THE FRONT...SO NO
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL UNFORTUNATELY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES.

GIVEN THE LACK OF MID CLOUD COVER IN PLACE NOW AND HOW THERE COULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUN BEFORE THEY MOVE IN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI...RAISED HIGHS TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE TIMING OF THE EJECTION OF
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A A TOUGH TIME WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL TRNEDS INDICATE THAT
THIS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME OVERCOME BY SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOSITURE AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING
TO LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THE
BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION COMES IN FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT. THIS SHOULD SCOUR THE RAIN THREAT FROM WET TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA INTO
FRIDAY IN CASE TROUGH SLOWS A BIT. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
SOMEWHAT. HIGHS IN THE 70S LOOK TO BE OK FOR THE TIME BEING. IF WE
DID HAPPEN TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE...WE MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S
TO THE SOUTH.

THE LONGER TERM TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER DECENT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST...AFFECTING THE REGION MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPED A DEEP SURFACE
LOW...OCCLUDING TO THE NORTH OVER MN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
WAS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED COLDER
TOWARDS MAY 11 AS WELL...WHICH WOULD PARALLEL THE TREND ON THE CFS
V2. THE 18Z RUN REALLY DROPPED TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO WARM TO AROUND 40 ON THE 11TH. SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF
AS SNOW FORECAST FOR MSP AS WELL. AT THE MOMENT...THE ECMWF HAS
THE SNOW OVER THE DAKOTAS FOR THIS PERIOD. WE WONT GO AS COLD AS
THESE MODELS INDICATE. NATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE GEFS MEAN OR ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. DEFINITELY COLDER THAN AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
WARM THROUGH THE 50S AT THAT TIME...WHICH COULD SET UP AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA FOR FROST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A DRY ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A MORE SE DIRECTION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR CEILINGS OF 040-050 TO SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA AT KRWF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. SE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 12-16
KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...FEW CONCERNS THIS CYCLE. ESE WINDS INCREASING TUESDAY
MORNING TO 12-14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS OF 040-050 DEVELOPING TUESDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 10-20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
      WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH



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