Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 302018
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
318 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR THE BORDER TRIPLE POINT OF MN/ND/SD WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A
WEAK SFC TROF JUST S OF THE CDFNT HAS KEPT E TO SE WINDS ALONG
WITH MIDLVL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL -SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE
CWFA...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE CWFA NOT SUBJECT TO THE CLOUD/PRECIP COMPLICATIONS HAS BEEN
SWRN PORTIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE LWR 70S.
MEANWHILE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWFA HAS HELD IN THE UPR 40S
TO MID 50S WITH THE COOLER LLVL CONDS IN PLACE. AS THE LOW PRES
CENTER SLIDES OVER THE AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NE THEN
NW...BRINGING IN A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
TMRW...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF
TMRW. DESPITE THE FROPA PASSAGE CREATING UPR LVL NWLY FLOW...THE
LARGE UPR LVL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...ALLOWING FOR A WARMER DAY OVERALL FOR MUCH OF THE
CWFA ON TUE. HIGHS ON TUE WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPR 50S IN
WRN WI TO THE UPR 60S IN WRN MN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE THUNDER THREAT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT INTO THURSDAY.

THE LATEST 15Z SREF PROBS OF 30KTS SHEAR AND 500 J/KG MUCAPE IS
INDICATING SMALL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SLOWED THE FRONT SLIGHTLY...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BEING THE
SLOWEST...WITH THE FRONT OVER WESTERN MN BY 00Z THU. WILL TREND A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND POPS...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH JUST
YET....AS THE TROUGH ISNT EVEN ON THE WEST COAST YET. WILL TREND
TO LIKELY POPS INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY LATE AFTERNOON...LIFTING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO 50 KTS
PLUS PROGGED INTO WESTERN MN BY 12Z WED...WITH HEFTY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INDICATED. PWAT INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH BY LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE HIGH
AS WELL...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL
ON THE ONSET OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH A STRONG/GUSTY WIND
THREAT. EXPECT THIS TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z ALONG THE
FRONT...AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT SHOULD TRAIL OFF
IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 06Z THU. AT THE MOMENT...WE HAVE
.30 TO AROUND .75 INCH QPF FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

COLDER WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING FOR THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH...AS THE PRESSURE RISES WORKS INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE OVERALL TREND IS
FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...AND BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ALOFT...IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND
THE INCOMING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DIFFUSE SFC TROF OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED -SHRA TO DEVELOP
ALONG-NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...THUS MAINLY AFFECTING KAXN-
KSTC-KRNH-KEAU. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT THE TROF HAS KEPT WINDS
WITH A PREVAILING ELY COMPONENT FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KRWF...AND
HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN CEILINGS IN THE 050 AREA. GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTN AND EVE...WINDS LOOK TO SWING TO SELY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRES CIRCULATION OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE E ACRS THE
AREA THIS EVE INTO TNGT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS
BCMG NW OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF TMRW. SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT MAY
DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME THIS AFTN AND EVE BEFORE SETTLING DOWN
INTO THE 5-10 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW.

KMSP...THE MOST COMPLICATED PART OF THE FCST WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON HAVING THE E-SE WINDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
N OF KMSP...AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THRU THE REST OF THE
AFTN. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO NW OVERNIGHT...SO AFTER THE
EVENING PUSH TDA AND BEFORE THE MRNG PUSH TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-074-
     082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC


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