Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 222251
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE WIND AND TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

LAST VESTIGES OF COLD UPPER TROUGH EXITING TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
SHOULD SEE CLEARING TREND INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
 WITH SURFACE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS WELL.  OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE 20S...WITH MOST AREAS BELOW FREEZING.  STILL A BIT EARLY
FOR ANY FREEZE HEADLINE FOR OUR AREA PER COORDINATION EFFORTS.

SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ABUNDANT FOR THURSDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE 40S WITH SOME MID 50S TO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF MN/WI AND
OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND THE FOUR CORNERS AND
LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY PASOMEWHAT DECENT
MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...REFLECTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO AROUND OVER
HALF AN INCH BY FRIDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT
OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY THUS
PROVIDING THE LIFT TO GO ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. A
DRIER AND WARMER PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS THAT ACTUALLY GET BACK UP ABOVE
0 C SHOULD BRING SURFACE TEMPS BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY MONDAY
MORNING. THERE IS SOME LIGHT QPF SHOWING UP IN THE SUN NIGHT -
MONDAY TIME FRAME...BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN WARMER/DRIER AND THE
ECMWF HAS FAVORED THIS SOLUTION THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECREASING TO 10 KTS OR BELOW. THURSDAY
WILL BE QUIET AS WELL WEATHER-WISE...WITH ONLY A FEW FLEETING HIGH
CLOUDS AND GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS /KNOTS/ RE-DEVELOPING AT
KEAU.

KMSP...VFR. WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS BY 03Z AND REMAIN BELOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR POSS WITH -SHRA. WINDS ESE 10-15 KT.
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -RA. WINDS ENE 5-10 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS ENE 5-10 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRES THROUGH 7 PM FOR THE AREA.  MOST AREAS
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SAW HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE.  EXPECT HUMIDITY TO DROP OFF AGAIN AROUND
20 PERCENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-047>049-
     054>059-064>069-073>077-082>085-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...LS
FIRE WEATHER...DWE



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