Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 220907
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
407 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING
PLACES OUR REGION IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.  SIGNIFICANT DRYING CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AXIS ADVANCES SOUTH.  EXTENT OF
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE
EAST TODAY AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE /CURRENTLY ACROSS
EASTERN MN/ MOVES SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST.  MOST OF THE MN COUNTIES
WILL BE CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WEST CENTRAL WI MAY SEE
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. ISOLATED SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI...ESPECIALLY FROM
LADYSMITH TO EAU CLAIRE.

DEEP MIXING ABOVE 800MB IS LIKELY...WITH DRYING LOW
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS UP
TO 30 EXPECTED TODAY FROM MORRIS TOWARD ALBERT LEA...WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER WINDS TO THE EAST. AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...WE`LL EVENTUALLY SEE WINDS BEGIN TO SLACKEN BY EVENING
AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.  A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT IS IN
STORE TONIGHT WITH FORECAST TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS QUITE PLEASANT WITH SURFACE RIDGING STRETCHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE WILL BE MUCH
LESS WIND (5-10 MPH) ON THURSDAY OVER WHAT HAVE EXPERIENCED THE
PAST FEW DAYS...WHICH IS GOOD SINCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE LOWERING INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FINE WEATHER WILL FADE AWAY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RATHER WIDESPREAD DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THEREFORE...BEGAN TO
INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE
WAVE THEN BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
RATHER INTENSE ON TWO UPPER LOWS BEING JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
OF US BY TUESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY WET SOLUTION WITH A HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF ON
THE OTHER HAND...AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN...KEEP THE TWO SYSTEMS
FURTHER APART WITH ONE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WHILE AN OPEN WAVE MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THE LATTER SOLUTIONS WOULD YIELD MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION
AS WELL AS BEING MORE SPOTTY. HENCE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND EVEN THIS COULD BE TOO MUCH
IF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE CORRECT.

NOTHING TOO CRITICAL IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. THE COLDEST MORNING
WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES. LOWS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH WILL
BE AROUND 30 TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT...BUT THE
PRECIP HAS LARGELY COME TO AN END. MVFR-VFR CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH SUNRISE IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI AND THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW. TOMORROW WILL FEATURE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE.

KMSP...

BKN-OVC DECK SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE...IN
FACT...CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY CLEAR WITH TIME. THE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING BUT THEN RAMP UP IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KT.
SAT...VFR. WINDS E-NE 5-10 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MN TODAY...EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THAT AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THAT AREA.  FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...WIND SPEEDS WONT BE
QUITE AS STRONG AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE MEAN RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL NOT QUITE BE MET THERE...BUT THERE IS STILL AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE AREA.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ047-048-054>058-064>067-073>076-082>084-
     091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF
FIRE...SPD


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