Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMPX 260850
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
350 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS AHEAD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
STEADY FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE
SKY WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TODAY AS WELL AS TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR
THOSE ON SATURDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FORECAST...WHICH IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORMAL. THE FORECAST HIGHS TODAY LINE
UP WELL WITH MIX-DOWN FROM THE NAM AT 825MB ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
SUPER.

THE REAL CHALLENGE TODAY IS HOW LOW WILL DEW POINTS DROP...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND THE CORRESPONDING AFTERNOON
MINIMUM HUMIDITY. THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BROUGHT DEW POINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS INTO NORTHEAST MN SATURDAY
EVENING. DEW POINTS NEAR 20 DEGREES ARE NOW PREVALENT ACROSS
CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NAM AND RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE SITUATION AND LOWER DEW POINTS TO NEAR 15 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 20 HERE IN THE TWIN
CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS RESULTS IN NEAR 15 PERCENT
MINIMUM HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN WITH 20
PERCENT HERE IN THE CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. SOUTHERN AREAS OF
MN BOTTOM OUT AROUND 25 PERCENT. FORTUNATELY...THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
KEEPING THE FIRE THREAT MAINLY IN THE LIMITED RANGE WITH ELEVATED
INDICATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH TWO
MOISTURE STARVED FRONTS TRAVERSING THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

THE TROUBLE MAKER FOR MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUES
TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND NEXT
WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT REALLY ALL THAT BAD UNTIL WE GET TO
THURSDAY...WHEN THE GFS STARTS TO BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PUSHING THIS LOW OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WHICH ALLOWS IT TO
BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GEM/ECMWF WITH THE
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO END THE WORK WORK GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR MODEL PREFERENCES...WENT WITH A FAIRLY EQUAL BLEND THROUGH
THURSDAY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION
FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF WITH A PICTURE PERFECT DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MN...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AS WELL.
PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT FOR THIS
FRONT...WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS KEEPING ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE WELL OF TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
LOOKING WEAK AS WELL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP IT GENERATES AND
CONTINUED THE TREND OF FAVORING A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THIS
FRONT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO BLENDED FORECAST HERE
WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS SOME BOTH DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MIXING
POTENTIAL. ALSO BLENDED IN SOME BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS INTO THE
HIGHS BOTH DAYS TO BOOST THEM BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED FOR WED/THU.

NEXT ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED COMES FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEW ENGLAND
H5 LOW MENTIONED IN THE SECOND PARAGRAPH...THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT
FASTER WITH BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. THIS SPREAD IN
THE FRONTS TIMING EXPLAINS THE NICE SMEARING OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT DOES HAVE A COUPLE OF FACTORS
THAT CAN GIVE ONE A LITTLE BIT MORE HOPE FOR SEEING PRECIP WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AS OPPOSED TO THE ONE FOR MONDAY NIGHT. NUMBER ONE...THERE
WILL BE NO UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS INTERCEPTING MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTH. ALSO MAKING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER IS THAT
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS BETTER ON FRIDAY AND THIS FRONT
ACTUALLY HAS SOME H85 FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT AHEAD OF IT.
STILL...THE AIRMASS IT WILL BE DISPLACING AGAIN LOOKS INCREDIBLY DRY
AND WITH INSTABILITY LACKING...ANYTHING WE DO SEE LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT
AT THIS POINT.

AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT WEEK...HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON
LOOK TO GET DOWN INTO THE 20S/30S. WINDS STILL LOOK LIGHT THOUGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY AND FRI WILL FEATURE STRONGER WINDS
AND IF THE MOISTURE RETURN ENDS UP BEING RATHER LACKING...WE COULD
HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS POINT...THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE DAY THAT HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO GENERATE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS AS OUR SE WINDS WILL BE EMANATING FROM A VERY DRY
SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES....WHILE FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT LOOKS TO FEATURE HIGHER DEWPS WITH THE PASSING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. SKC CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU
TMRW EVE. E TO NE WINDS WILL SETTLE CLOSE TO 5 KT OVERNIGHT THEN
INCRS TO THE 5-10 KT RANGE DURG THE DAY TMRW.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS EXPECTED THIS TAF SET.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NNE 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KT.
WED...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.