Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 260332
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1032 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THE CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING AND
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING RATHER STAGNANT MOVEMENT WITH UPPER
CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN IOWA/ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS UNDERCUTTING
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS. LARGE SHIELD OF CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TRAPPED FLOW OVER IOWA/EXTREME SOUTHERN MN.
DRY EASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW OVER WISCONSIN/EASTERN MN WAS STRONG
ENOUGH TO ERODE MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER...SOME REDEVELOPMENT OCCURRED TO THE SOUTH...NEAR
THE EXITING TROUGH AS TEMPERATURES WARMED BACK INTO THE MID 50S.
THIS...ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS...MAY LINGER A BIT INTO THE
EVENING IN THIS FAR SOUTH AND WEST. WILL BRING IN THE CLEARING
THROUGH 06Z SUN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA HOWEVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
SOME EAST WIND CONTINUING...SHOULD COOL TO NEAR THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE...PERHAPS A DEGREE COOLER TO THE EAST.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE FOR THE AREA...ALONG WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES MOST AREAS. DID DRY
DEWPOINTS OUT A BIT MORE AS A FAIRLY GOOD MIX IS EXPECTED/TO 825MB
OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A RELATIVELY BENIGN LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE AN
ITEM OF NOTE.

THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A PAIR OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...ONE NORTHERN
STREAM AND ONE SOUTHERN STREAM. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/MS VALLEY REGIONS. THE NORTHERN WAVE WILL SKIRT THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF ND/MN ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MOISTURE AND FORCING SUFFICIENT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP STAY NORTH
OF THE AREA PER THE GFS AND NAM...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE
TO DEPICT LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL MN/WI BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND
00Z WED. AM LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER SCENARIO GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY
NNE FLOW AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS. HAVE RESTRICTED 20 POPS TO THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA.

AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...850MB TEMPS OF +10C TO +15C ARE
FORECAST BY THE GFS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER IN BUILDING THE WARMTH...BUT CONCURS THAT MODERATING
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WAY. EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S FOR
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWER 80S EVEN APPEARING
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN.

A WEAK TROUGH IS SET TO CRAWL EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY THE
WEEKEND. TIMING/CONSISTENCY IS NOT WONDERFUL...BUT IS SUFFICIENT
TO JUSTIFY THE INCLUSION OF 20 POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. SKC CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU
TMRW EVE. E TO NE WINDS WILL SETTLE CLOSE TO 5 KT OVERNIGHT THEN
INCRS TO THE 5-10 KT RANGE DURG THE DAY TMRW.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS EXPECTED THIS TAF SET.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NNE 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KT.
WED...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC



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