Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 272320
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
620 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FRONT
ON TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE DAKOTAS COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT.  STILL EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT...BUT READING SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH CLOUDS
AND EVENTUALLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT.  IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WEAK FRONT MOVING TO NEAR A KSTC-KMVE
LINE BY 12Z TUE...AND THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA BY 23Z.  BANDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED.  DRIER ATMOSPHERE TO THE
EAST WILL PRECLUDE THREAT INTO THE SOUTHEAST CWA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
LOWER 70S INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN WILL THINNER CLOUD COVER AND BETTER
MIXING WITH THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
TUESDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHILE HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE AS A WESTERN
RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL MEAN A SLIGHTLY LOWER POTENTIAL FOR WARMING INITIALLY...BUT
WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE MID 60 TO LOWER 70 DEGREE
READINGS ON WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY...WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY IN
DIRECTION...WITH MODERATING LLVL TEMPS AND A BIT HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR MIXING AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. THE
MAIN WARMING IS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN...WHERE MID 70S
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

THE NEXT BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE SHORT OF IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...BUT SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE 20-30 POPS.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE AN EVEN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
WARMTH AS 850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND OR EVEN ABOVE +12C. THIS
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONT THAT COULD BRING A DECENT
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A PART OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...WHICH IS OF LOW
CERTAINTY RIGHT NOW...WILL HEAVILY PLAY INTO PRECIP CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...SOUTHERN MN APPEARS TO HAVE LIKELY PRECIP
CHANCES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
APPEAR PROBABLE AREA-WIDE AS WELL. WILL NEED TO TWEAK BOTH
PARAMETERS AS THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT BECOME MORE
CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING INTO WESTERN MN TO START...AND WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CURRENT WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
WEAK FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA STARTING WITH EXTREME WESTERN
MN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AND PROGRESSING EAST...REACHING
EASTERN MN AROUND 16-18Z AND EAU CLAIRE AROUND 18-20Z. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT BUT NO APPRECIABLE PRECIP.
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS IN CENTRAL MN...SO INCLUDED
VCSH AT AXN AND STC. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS. A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
REACHING THE GROUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT NOT WORTHY OF A
MENTION IN THE TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KTS BECOMING SE.
FRI...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SPD



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