Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN CONUS FROM WRN
NY/PA DOWN TO THE FL PANHANDLE. THE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY... RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND AND IN THE LOW-MID
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST (EXCEPT ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE MD LOWER
EASTERN SHORE WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 60S DUE
TO SOUTH WINDS). FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS STRADDLES THE
ERN US COASTLINE AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME SWLY BUT LIGHT. THIS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE
COAST (OR ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY BUT FLATTENS OUT IN
THE PROCESS...KEEPING A MORE DOMINANT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A RELATIVELY FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NRN VA/DELMARVA AREAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LIFTING
MECHANISMS AND MOISTURE FIELDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
FRONT...HOWEVER A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING (MAINLY ACROSS THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE). IF THERE IS
ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY PRESENT...A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS ON MON/TUE 80-85...MID- UPPER 70S IMMEDIATE
COAST. LOWS MON/TUE NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SFC HI PRES WILL BE CNTRD WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED MORNG...
MAINTAINING DRY WX. A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY POSSIBLY DROP INTO NRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER WED THRU THU. FOR NOW...HAVE
MAINTAINED A SLGT CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM OVR NRN AND WRN COUNTIES
DURING THIS TIME. THEN...THU NGT THRU SAT...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW LO PRES SPINNING SOMEWHERE OFF THE SE CST. HAVE A SLGT CHC OF
SHOWERS MAINLY OVR SRN COUNTIES THU NGT THRU FRI NGT...THEN A SLGT
CHC OF SHOWERS OVR MOST OF THE AREA ON SAT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY
WX WILL PREVAIL WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO LWR 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACRS THE REGION AS OF 06Z...WINDS GENLY CALM OR
LIGHT S/SW. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP AT KECG FOR MVFR VSBY IN SHALLOW
GROUND FOG (DUE TO HIGHER RH AND CALM CONDS THERE). KEPT ANY
MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE OTHER SITES WITH GREATER TEMP/DEW PT
SPREADS AND SOME LIGHT WINDS.

A LIGHT W/SW FLOW TO PREVAIL TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WEAK
SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICALLY CONDUCIVE TO WINDS SHIFTING
ONSHORE AT THE COAST IN THE AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST WINDS TURNING NE
AT KORF (SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT ALL AREAS). LIGHT S/SW FLOW AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN S/SW FLOW ON MON.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE
A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA`S ON THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH 7 AM FOR NORTHERN WATERS...AND THROUGH 10AM FOR
SRN WATERS BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS...STILL 5-6 FT OFFSHORE (AND
NEARSHORE FOR NC WATERS).

OTHER THAN SEAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN INTO
TONIGHT DUE TO SWELL...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BENIGN CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WED...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS THEN BECOMES ANCHORED ALONG/JUST OFF THE NC AND SE VA COAST
MON-WED. FAIRLY MINIMAL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO DAILY SEABREEZES AND SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE BAY AT NIGHT (THOUGH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS). FROM MON-WED SEAS LOOK TO AVG 2-4 FT WHILE WAVES IN
THE BAY GENLY 1-2 FT. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POSSIBLE LATER WED INTO
THU COMBINED WITH SFC LOW OFF THE GA/SC CST WOULD POTENTIALLY
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND SHIFT DIRECTIONS TO THE E/NE ALTHOUGH
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWER AT BRINGING THAT SFC LOW NORTHWARD
SO ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS PROBABLY HOLDS OFF UNTIL
FRI/SAT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LKB/LSA
MARINE...LKB



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