Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 032349
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
749 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MONDAY...PROVIDING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE RAPIDLY
DECREASING ACROSS THE ALY FCST AREA. THE KENX RADAR SHOWS A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS GETTING READY TO EXIT THE BERKSHIRES AND ERN WINDHAM
CTY VT. THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO STABILIZE...AND THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR. THE
SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE REMOVED PRIOR TO 00Z.

EXPECT THE SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE SFC HIGH
REMAINING NEAR/OF JUST OFF THE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50F ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR MONDAY EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY WITH SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE
DAY. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
WIND GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MONDAY EVENING INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF OUR FA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. HAVE NOT
PLACED ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THE MLMUCAPES ARE ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST AND THE SHOWALTER INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE
DURING THE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FA. EXPECT LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

OTHER THAN A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FA TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
TO RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD TRANSITIONS FROM DRY TO SHOWERY...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN...AND A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE INFLUX
OF MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...THUS SOME SOUTHERN ZONES MAY NOT SEE
ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE CLOSING IN PROXIMITY OF A
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL...HOWEVER...INCREASE POPS...
BRINGING US OUR GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERY WETTING ON SUNDAY.
CAPES AND OTHER INDICES ARE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE FROM
AROUND 70 TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.  LOWS START OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY IN THE 40S...THEN /MILD UP/ INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR ALBANY DURING THIS
PERIOD ARE IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.  A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT TO TUESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS ENDING 00Z/5 FOR
KGFL...KALB...KPSF...AND KPOU. THE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING WITH
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH
THE SFC HIGH NEAR THE COAST.

SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER
TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL ALSO BE FEW-SCT
MID LEVEL CUMULUS AGAIN. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW
AT 7-12 KTS BY THE LATE MORNING...AND THEN 12-16 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT ALL THE TAF
SITES.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW
YORK...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT FROM NOON
UNTIL 8 PM ON MONDAY. LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MAINLY IN
CONTROL. IT HAS BEEN MORE THAN A WEEK SINCE OUR REGION HAS
RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. NO LOCATIONS HAVE REACHED A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST 5 DAYS.

RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT RANGE TONIGHT WITH
SOME DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT ALL AREAS MAY NOT
RECEIVE A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT 1O
TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT TO 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
ENDING THURSDAY.

IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVERS AND
STREAMS TO LOWER FURTHER...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD AS
VEGETATION IS BEGINNING TO BLOOM. A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
ADIRONDACKS MONDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE AROUND A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11


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