Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 252037
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
337 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO ALABAMA FROM
MISSISSIPPI. THE CORE OF THE MCS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...BUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE COMPLEX COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 6 PM THIS EVENING...
AND JUST LEFT SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 9 PM TO HANDLE ANY LINGERING STORMS. A SURFACE LOW WILL
PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO NORTH ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED FOR ANY CONVECTION ALONG FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TUESDAY MORNING.

A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE HELD BACK BY THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE EASTERN TROF WILL FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY AND THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL PULL
SOME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO ALABAMA ON TUESDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND LIKELY OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES ALABAMA THE SURFACE FLOW
STAYS MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST...AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEYOND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE UPPER TROF AND MOVES THE SYSTEM EAST OF ALABAMA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT... WHILE THE GFS ELONGATES THE TROF AND HANGS IT UP OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES. THE CANADIAN AND DGEX MODELS SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND FAVORED THIS SCENARIO.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA REDEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE PRIME HEAT OF THE DAY. ONLY
MENTION IN TAFS WILL BE AT MGM/TOI. WILL LEAVE OUT OF ALL OTHER
TERMINALS AS THE CHANCES WILL BE LOW. ONE THING NOT HELPING
REDEVELOPMENT IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER. HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN
COMBINATION WITH SOME MVFR STRATOCU AT A FEW SPOTS WHICH FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD GO TO VFR CIGS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE TOI...WHICH IS
LOWER AND MAY STRUGGLE GETTING THERE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES SOUTH TAFS...MGM/TOI DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES LATE TODAY.

08/MK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  79  51  71  47 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    64  81  54  72  50 /  20  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  65  81  55  73  51 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  84  56  75  53 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      65  82  56  74  53 /  20  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      65  82  57  75  53 /  30  10   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  67  87  60  78  56 /  30  10   0  10  10
TROY        67  87  61  79  56 /  30  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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