Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 032316 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
616 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...A DECK OF CLOUDINESS BETWEEN 7K AND 9K FEET IS THE
MAIN DECK AFFECTING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
BUT THIS SHOULD BE REPLACED BY A DECK AROUND 2.5K FEET AFTER
SUNSET. MODERATE WINDS NOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF FOG AT THE
AERODROMES. BREEZY WINDS ARE LIKELY TOMORROW WITH RISING CEILINGS.
MVFR TONIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY VFR ON MONDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOW A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING EAST WHILE CENTER OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PAC COAST MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST INTERACTING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
GULF COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH TODAY ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD IS INCREMENTING
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SAME TREND STAYS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING PRODUCING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWER WHILE MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS
STREAMER SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO EARLY EVENING
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED. THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL KEEP
THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH BKN TO OVERCAST
DECK. THIS WILL INSULATE THE AREA FROM COOLING DOWN AS MUCH TONIGHT SO
LEAN A FEW DEG HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGH`S IN THE 70S
NEAR THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INLAND.

MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW ENTERS THE CA COAST A BETTER DIFFLUENT FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS TEXAS AND FOUR CORNERS REGION ENHANCING CONVECTION EAST
OF THE SIERRA MADRE CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THIS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASIDE TO PWATS INCREASING TO 1.56 INCHES WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE AND
SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. DUE TO THE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3000 FEET WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING SE WINDS TO 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT RELAXES
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE STREAMING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A ZONAL WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMUM SLOWS FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD PUTTING THE REGION IN CONVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT. RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...COUPLED WITH
LEE TROUGHING IN RESPONSE TO THE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND GENERAL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 850MB THAT WILL ADVECT IN SOME
MOISTURE THROUGH THAT LAYER...BUT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIKELY NOT
RISE TO THE LEVEL THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WOULD BE EXPECTED. PERSISTENT 700MB WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD ALSO KEEP A GENERAL INVERSION OVER THE AREA.

CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN A FEW AREAS WHERE THE BEST 850-700MB
MOISTURE POOLS...MAINLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THESE AREAS AS WELL
GIVING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. OVERALL HOWEVER
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BE A QUICK SPRINKLE OR TWO IN
THE MORNING HOURS...UNDER THE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S COASTAL TO LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE THE WEATHER HEADLINE
WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE.

GUIDANCE TRENDS ALSO CONTINUE TO BE FURTHER NORTH WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY KEEPING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FURTHER
REINFORCES THE DRIER THINKING THROUGH THE WEEK. /68-JGG/

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT OVER NIGHT BUT ONCE AGAIN BUT
WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY. THE SEAS WILL INCREASE
CLOSER TO 4 FEET WITH WINDS BELOW SCEC CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD COULD ENHANCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE GULF BUT WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVE AND PRODUCE A BRIEF SHOWER. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MODERATE TO GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. EXERCISE CAUTION OR MARGINAL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON ON THE LAGUNA MADRE.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ON
THE GULF OF MEXICO AMID MODERATE SEAS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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