Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 252002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MAINE AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN VERMONT. HAVE USED A COMBINATION OF GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW MORE MOISTURE
MOVING SOUTHWEST FROM CANADA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS ON MONDAY FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.

NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL PATTERN GOING INTO THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH REMAINING THE DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST.

BEGINNING THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY PLAGUING
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DOING SO
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW DOMINATING. WHILE I
EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS,
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPS LIKELY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS OR BELOW IN THE 50S. THE WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AND LOW TEMPS
AROUND NORMAL IN THE 30S AND 40S.

GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AND ONWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY, LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS IN REGARDS TO HOW A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF
LOW PHASES WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. GFS
CONTINUES TO GENERALLY ABSORB THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE
BROAD NORTHERN TROUGH, WHILE THE ECMWF DOES THE OPPOSITE AND CARVES
OUT A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOPS A STRONG
COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA`S EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING
THE PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN ALL YEAR AND MORE RECENTLY THE PAST MONTH,
CAN`T REALLY BUY INTO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS FOR NOW. WHAT THIS WILL OFFER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS
CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST.
HIGHS LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S, AND LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH TO START THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES...
LOWERING TO INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS (2500-3000FT) OVERNIGHT
MOST AREAS (PBG AND RUT BEING THE EXCEPTIONS) AFTER 11Z. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR (3500FT OR BETTER) FOR ALL AREAS AROUND
14Z. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD
(15Z) COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTIAN LOCALS...BUT DON`T LOOK TO HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN ANY ONE AREA.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS FOR
TODAY...GIVING AWAY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT...STEADYING TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 KNOTS FOR SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MV


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