Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 052340
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
740 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATPIX SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NAM GUIDANCE AS THE
MERCURY DROPS INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCENARIO WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE DISORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF FL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWARD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW CREEPING NORTHWARD
OFFSHORE OF THE MELBOURNE FL AREA. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE MID LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TO THE WATERS OFF THE
GA COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WILL SEE
CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADJUST TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOWER THAN DESIRED. HAVE TRENDED THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE GFS AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
GOOD. THIS WILL HAVE THE LOW OFF THE SC COAST THURSDAY AND NEAR
THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE MODELS SHOW SOME SUBSIDENCE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN LOW AS BEST
MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONTINUE. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SAT IMAGES SHOW HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS MOVING TOWARD CENTAL SC FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE
HIGH CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WIND SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME VARIABLE VISBYS
ASSOCIATED WITHT THE RIVER FOG AT AGS BUT DO NOT THINK THIS
CONDITION IS LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOME SCT DAYTIME CU AROUND 5K FT AFTER 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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