Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 050728
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
328 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE STATE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL COME TO AN END BY DAYBREAK OR SO
AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST,
WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE, COVERAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
EVENING, IT WILL BE A DRY NIGHT UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID
40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTD DRY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS XPCTD WED THRU THU UNDER PTLY
TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH MIXING ALF WITH STRONGER WINDS DURG
DAYLIGHT HRS ALLOWING FOR BREEZY TO EVEN WINDY CONDITIONS ATTMS
ACROSS PTNS OF THE FA...SPCLY DURING THE AFTN HRS. WITH SFC HI
PRES REMAINING W OF THE FA...LESS THAN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD FOR WED NGT...SPCLY IF A FRONTAL BAND OF MID
CLDS REACHES THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR THE LATE WEEK AND
UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING STUBBORN
UPPER TROFFING TO HOLD JUST E OF THE CAN MARITIMES THRU THIS PD.
THIS RESULTS IN WARMER AIR TRYING TO ENTER THE FA FROM WSW BEING
HELD OFF...SPCLY FROM THE NE HLF OF THE FA DURG THIS PTN OF THE
FCST. THIS IN TURN...COULD RESULT IN TWO SHARPLY CONTRASTING
REGIMES TO OCCUPY OUR FA...A CLDY COOLER AND SHWRY ONE ACROSS
THE N AND E...AND POTENTIALLY SUNNIER...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SW...SPCLY FRI AND SAT INLAND FROM THE
COAST. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN SLOWLY SAG A COLD FRONT SWRD THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SAT NGT THRU MON...BRING A BETTER CHC OF
SHWRS TO THE S HLF OF THE FA SPCLY SUN AND MON. BOTH LOW AND SPCLY
HI TEMPS...WHICH WERE OBTAINED BY UTILIZING CONSRAW BLENDED MODEL
DATA FOR BETTER HI TRRN TEMPS AND EITHER CONSHPCBLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM OR THE SUPERBLEND FOR LOWER TRRN TEMPS...ARE SUBJECT TO
MAJOR ERRORS FOR PTNS OF THE FA EVEN IF THE MODELS JUST A LITTLE
OFF WITH FRONTAL PSNS SPCLY FRI AND SAT. WE HAVE A LITTLE MORE
CERTAINTY FOR SUN AND MON WHEN WE THINK THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDES S OF THE FA INTO THE GULF OF ME. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...
WE KEPT MAX SHWR POPS IN THE HI CHC CATEGORY FOR EACH PD FOR THE
TM BEING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AREA POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD WED THRU FRI...THEN MVFR CLGS AND
VSBYS POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT WITH SHWRS...SPCLY NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE AROUND 5 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THEY
WILL SUBSIDE AROUND DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
AND WINDS TURN OFFSHORE. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD WED THRU FRI ATTM...WITH NEAR
SCA WV HTS POSSIBLE MSLY OVR OUTER MZS050-051. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3
WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCED MINIMAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS, DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP WELL INTO THE 20S, RESULTING IN LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. FINE FUELS REMAIN DRY DUE TO
THE RECENT STRETCH OF SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER. GIVEN THE DAY CREW`S
COLLABORATION WITH THE MAINE FOREST SERVICE YESTERDAY AND AFTER
SPEAKING WITH GYX THIS MORNING, HAVE OPTED TO CONVERT THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING. THE COASTAL ZONES WERE
INCLUDED IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AND DEWPOINTS TO DROP.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
FIRE WEATHER...HASTINGS



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