Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 050905
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
405 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

ONGOING PRECIPITATION EVENT, MAINLY AFFECTING THE WESTERN COUNTIES,
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RAP
ANALYSIS AS OF 0830 UTC SHOWED THE CENTER OF A BROAD MID LEVEL
CYCLONE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. THERE WERE 5 IDENTIFIABLE
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO TO WEST TEXAS NORTHWARD THROUGH FAR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A
MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC DRY INTRUSION CONTINUED TO PUSH SLOWLY NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE GREATEST
DEEP TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS OF 0830 UTC. ALL
MESOSCALE AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS DEEP TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 283, BETWEEN 1100 UTC AND 2000
UTC. EVENTUALLY, THE MAIN PRECIP AREA WILL LIFT NORTH AND BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED, HOWEVER IN ITS WAKE, MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
AID IN DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, AND NEW SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
WILL FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY, WHICH BY 2100 UTC SHOULD JUST BE ENTERING THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. A SECOND LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN ROLL EASTWARD FROM FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...TO THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY, THIS WILL REACH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE SECOND HAVE OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD
(0600 TO 1200 UTC WEDNESDAY). FINALLY, SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT, BUT NOT BEFORE MUCH OF THE REGION SEES
WELL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TOP OF WHAT WAS
RECEIVED YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIKELY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS THE WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE AFTERNOON, MOST OF THE STORMS WILL ALSO END. BY
LATER AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE NEAR AND EAST
OF DODGE CITY AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO BE GUSTY AT 25 TO 40 MPH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 22
MPH. SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALSO FORM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST WEST OF THE DRYLINE AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S,
WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EAST.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BROADSCALE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, NEAR DODGE CITY, AND EAST. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

FOR SATURDAY, A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AHEAD OF
THE WAVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE NEW ECMWF DISAGREES AND
HAS THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AT ANY RATE WHEREVER THIS WARM FRONT WILL FORM
WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ROTATING
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES, WITH LOTS OF LOW TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL
SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
WHERE THE WARM FRONT RESIDES, AND BE MAINLY IN THE 70S.

FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE STRONG
WAVE ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS MAINLY EAST OF WESTERN
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70. LOWS COULD DROP BACK INTO THE 40S
ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A 3 TO 5 HOUR
BREAK CENTERED AROUND ROUGHLY 09-13Z OR SO BEFORE THE NEXT MAJOR
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION AFFECTS THE GCK AND DDC TERMINALS. THE RAIN
ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERY IN NATURE WITHOUT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION, SO WE ARE KEEPING THUNDER OUT OF THE
TERMINALS FOR THE DAY TUESDAY. THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY OUTSIDE
OF PRECIPITATION AREAS WILL BE VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  60  81  58 /  80  80  20  20
GCK  61  57  81  53 / 100  60  20  10
EHA  65  53  81  51 / 100  50  10  10
LBL  63  57  83  56 / 100  50  10  10
HYS  71  59  78  58 /  50  80  50  50
P28  76  61  79  62 /  60  80  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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