Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 020805
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
305 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

Today - Tonight:

Ongoing convective system has sent out a well defined outflow
boundary with convection well behind this boundary. This should be
the trend through much of the morning. The main question is how long
the convection persist into the day and how far south the outflow
boundary will sag before afternoon convection reignites. Short term
models show the boundary sliding south of the forecast area and into
southern Missouri. Renewed activity, potentially severe, should then
develop in the vicinity of this boundary. There is some potential
this activity would threaten our far southern counties during the
afternoon/evening hours. But the best SBCAPE should remain south of
the area. This is consistent with the NAM, WRF ARW and NMM as well
SREF probabilities. So thinking the threat of severe weather within
the forecast area is fairly low through afternoon and evening.

Temperatures for today are little challenging due to the presence of
the convective system and lingering cloud cover. But models are
consistent moving this east with skies clearing enough to allow for
temperatures to climb back into the 70s for most locations. This
will be subdued in our east where cloud cover and possible
precipitation will linger longer.

Friday - Saturday:

The focus will then turn to another upper level shortwave trough and
its associated surface low tracking out of the central and southern
Plains within a strong upper jet. Instability again looks very
limited for this activity and we should see an area of rain expand
over Kansas and spread eastward overnight and into Friday morning.

Temperatures Friday look to be much cooler than the past few days.
With the surface low tracking to our south and northerly winds
prevailing behind the front, as well as possible precipitation,
temperatures don`t look to get out of the 50s.

High pressure will track across the area Friday night/Saturday
morning and should be southeast of the area by Saturday afternoon.
The 850mb high however will be very near the area so there will be
little warm advection aloft. Still, with southerly winds to return
and we should be climb back into the 60s. Conditions look to be dry
due to the low level high and broad upper ridging spreading over the
area.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.Long Term (Sunday through Wednesday)...

For the latter half of the weekend...expect mostly dry conditions
and seasonable temperatures as zonal flow prevails overhead. High
temps through the afternoon will range in the lower to middle 60s
with cloud cover increasing through the afternoon as return flow
moisture begins creeping northward from the Gulf. Can/t rule out a
stray shower or two south of Route 50...but majority of the region
should remain dry. Forecast becomes a bit more active heading into
the upcoming work week as a Pacific trough begins digging into the
the Pacific Northwest. Flow downstream ahead of this system will
become southwesterly with time...which should provide an active
corridor for several passing shortwaves through early week. The
first of these will likely drop out of the Intermountain West as
early as Monday with sfc low pressure expected to track east through
the Central Plains by Monday afternoon. Models show decent
instability out ahead of the low which should support an uptick in
convective activity during peak heating in the afternoon. Severe
trends will be monitored as event timing draws nearer. Beyond
this...main frontal boundary expected to stall south of our region
with additional shortwaves providing support for renewed rounds of
shwrs/storms through the conclusion of the fcst period. In
general...temps look to be slightly above normal both Monday and
Tuesday /upper 60s to lower 70s/ before cooler air reinvades by
Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

Line of storms approaching far northwest Missouri will weaken a bit
once it reaches the KC area by 09Z, and it`s unlikely any terminal
would experience damaging hail or winds greater than 40 kts once
storms arrive. Improving conditions expected after sunrise with
perhaps some lingering MVFR clouds, otherwise quiet flying conditions
for Thursday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






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