Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 251004
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
404 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
TODAY. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO BY EARLY
SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 TO 8000 FEET DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM WEST
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH EXPECTED. COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY`S WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS
THE REGION AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH BREEZY TO NEAR WINDY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES
INTO NEW MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE WINTER
LIKE QUALITIES TO IT WITH CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WHICH
ALONG MOISTURE WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE STATE...INCLUDING SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND PARTS
OF FAR WEST TEXAS. IN ADDITION THE COLDER AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 7500 TO 8000 FEET OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND RIDGE LINES. LOWLANDS WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS WITH
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE EXTRA CLOUDINESS AND
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH STATE ON SUNDAY. WEST WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30-40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE STATE. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO OCCUR
THOUGH MAIN DUST SOURCE REGIONS SOUTH OF THE BORDER WILL NOT BE
TAPPED DURING THIS EVENT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN
THE EVENING ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY WILL SEE REDUCED WIND SPEEDS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF THE
REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWLAND AREAS STAYING
IN THE UPPER 60S. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW ON MONDAY FOR MAINLY THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THE PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF 60S AND
LOWER 70S WILL CONTINUE. THE GILA REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ON THURSDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
MORE TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND EASTERN PACIFIC MAY
BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE STATE AS PART OF A RENEWED SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING FROM SMALL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH BASED...PRODUCING VERY
LITTLE RAIN BUT A POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING. THE ACTIVITY MAY
PEAK BY NEXT SUNDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 25/12Z-26/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID PD. SKIES SKC TO
SCT250. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFT
18Z...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AFT 02Z. MUCH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS  WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE NEXT STRONG
STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 PH. INCREASED WINDS WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL MEET CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A RED FLAG
WATCH WILL UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING LATER THIS MORNING.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE GILA REGION. STRONG
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON SUNDAY DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
FOR THE LOWLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL VARY BETWEEN 7500 AND 8000
FEET. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 80  59  71  52  73 /   0   0  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           77  51  70  46  68 /   0   0  10   0   0
LAS CRUCES              78  50  69  43  70 /   0   0  30   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              77  52  67  43  68 /   0   0  30  20  10
CLOUDCROFT              56  35  46  30  49 /   0   0  40  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   76  50  65  43  68 /   0   0  40  20  20
SILVER CITY             67  43  55  37  64 /   0  10  50  20  20
DEMING                  77  47  67  41  72 /   0   0  30   0   0
LORDSBURG               76  46  65  39  72 /   0   0  40  10   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      79  58  70  51  72 /   0   0  20   0   0
DELL CITY               80  52  71  46  70 /   0   0  10   0  10
FORT HANCOCK            82  54  74  49  74 /   0   0  10   0   0
LOMA LINDA              73  52  65  45  66 /   0   0  20   0   0
FABENS                  81  54  72  47  72 /   0   0  20   0   0
SANTA TERESA            79  53  70  46  72 /   0   0  20   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          77  55  67  48  69 /   0   0  30   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           77  47  67  38  70 /   0   0  30   0   0
HATCH                   78  49  67  42  71 /   0   0  30  20   0
COLUMBUS                76  52  68  47  71 /   0   0  30   0   0
OROGRANDE               77  54  67  45  68 /   0   0  30   0   0
MAYHILL                 63  43  55  35  55 /   0   0  40  20  30
MESCALERO               63  40  53  33  54 /   0   0  50  30  30
TIMBERON                61  41  53  34  54 /   0   0  30  20  20
WINSTON                 67  36  56  34  62 /   0   0  60  20  20
HILLSBORO               73  45  62  39  67 /   0   0  40  20  20
SPACEPORT               77  46  66  39  69 /   0   0  30  20  10
LAKE ROBERTS            65  40  53  34  63 /   0  10  70  20  30
HURLEY                  70  43  58  35  67 /   0   0  50  20  10
CLIFF                   74  44  62  36  72 /   0  10  60  20  20
MULE CREEK              71  36  58  30  70 /   0  20  70  20  10
FAYWOOD                 71  44  60  37  66 /   0   0  40  20  10
ANIMAS                  77  48  67  42  72 /   0   0  30  10   0
HACHITA                 78  47  68  40  73 /   0   0  30  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          76  47  68  40  73 /   0   0  30   0   0
CLOVERDALE              72  45  64  39  69 /   0   0  30  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NMZ111-112.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN





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