Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 040118
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
918 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015


.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS
EVENING. ANY LINGERING CU WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS AROUND OVERNIGHT. NO BIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST...BUT WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY GRIDS.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED HIGH BASED CU PREVAILED OVER MOST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SW-S FLOW OF 10 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT THE DIURNAL
CU TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY NW
FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH SOME RETURNING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. NO SHOWERS EXPECTED. GENERALLY USED A MET/MAV MOS
BLEND WITH TEMPS AND POPS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH THE
MAX TEMP ON MONDAY AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

16

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
INFLUENCE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL OFF THE GA COAST ON
THURSDAY... THEN MEANDERING ALONG THE GA/SC/NC COASTS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE GFS IS BRINGING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INLAND
ALONG THE GA COAST ON SUNDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF IS STILL DRIFTING
THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD ALONG THE SC AND NC COASTS ON SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH HAVE INCREASED THE AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTH AND EAST GA ON SUNDAY... IT APPEARS GA COULD EASILY BE ON
THE DRY SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER... STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND TRACKING OF THIS
SYSTEM... SO PLEASE STAY TUNED.

39

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 414 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA GIVING US A MOSTLY
DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE WEEK. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED WITH THESE WAVES BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR A FEW MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR EACH
WEEKDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OFF SHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE DEPENDS ON THE FINAL LOCATION OF THE LOW....SO FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT LOW POPS CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTH AND
NORTHEAST GA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

41

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. DIURNAL CU SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP FOR OVERNIGHT.
SOME THIN CIRRUS IS POSSIBLE. SCT CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TOMORROW WITH HEATING. WINDS ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AND
FLIRT WITH DUE SOUTH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT AND STAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF SOUTH BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z.
HOWEVER...SPEEDS OF 5KT OR LESS ARE LIKELY...SO SOME WAFFLING ON
EITHER SIDE OF 180 IS POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AND STAY ON
THE EAST SIDE OF SOUTH BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  82  56  81 /   5   5  10   5
ATLANTA         58  82  59  80 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     51  78  54  77 /   5   5   0  20
CARTERSVILLE    51  83  56  81 /   5   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        57  84  59  82 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     56  80  57  79 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           52  83  54  83 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            51  83  55  82 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  49  81  53  80 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         59  82  58  80 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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