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000
FXUS63 KFGF 100940
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
340 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.SHORT TERM...NEAR TERM FOG WILL BE THE FIRST CONCERN.
OTHERWISE...PRECIP CHANCES THUR INTO SAT WILL BE THE CHALLENGES.
00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WITH MINIMAL ERRORS. ALL MODELS SHOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN WITH SFC RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING EAST...AND THEN A
WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THUR AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
STRONGER UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. MODEL
DISAGREEMENT COMES WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE WAVES...WILL
USE A BLEND.

SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FA AND TEMPS APPROACHING -20F MOST
PLACES. THERE IS AN AREA OF THIN LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXPAND AND MOVE EAST. THERE IS
ALSO SOME DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED HERE AND THERE. THE DENSE FOG
APPEARS VERY PATCHY...THUS NO ADVISORY REQUIRED (BUT WILL
MONITOR). MUCH OF THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DID MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SFC RIDGE LOOKS TO HANG THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...LEADING TO MINIMAL MIXING. CONSIDERING COLD START AND
MINIMAL MIXING WILL LOWER MAX TEMP FOR TODAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY (TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO). THE FORESTED REGION IN
MINNESOTA SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE TEENS. WEAK WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING SHOULD LEAD TO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS BEFORE
RETURN FLOW REALLY KICKS IN. LOWERED MIN TEMPS AS A RESULT.

THUR-SAT...THERE IS MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A WEAK UPPER WAVE THUR
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO TRACK FROM DVL-FAR AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST.
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY ALONG THIS PATH. MOST LIKELY
UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW CONSIDERING FAST MOVING AND WEAK NATURE TO
THIS WAVE. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE FA FROM THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY...AND THROUGH THE FA FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY. ECMWF IS
QUICKEST...WHILE NAM/GEM ARE SLOWEST...AND GFS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SIMILAR TO THE FEB 7 SYSTEM...BUT
MOVES THROUGH MUCH QUICKER WITH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SNOW
ACCUMULATION APPEARS VERY POSSIBLE...AND TRENDED POPS INTO CHANCE
CATEGORY MOST AREAS FOR FRI NIGHT (WHEN ALL MODELS HAVE PRECIP).
AT THIS TIME SNOW AMTS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL (1-3 INCHES)...BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR IF MODELS SLOW THIS SYSTEM AT ALL. MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD SHOULD BE CLOUDY...SO TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SFC RIDGE INFLUENCES THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD ACCORDING TO MOST MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THIN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
DENSE FOG AROUND THE REGION. LIFR CONDITIONS FROM THIS SHOULD
MAINLY AFFECT KDVL AND KGFK...POSSIBLY KFAR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/FOG
TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN LIGHT
SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
TG