Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 050345 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
351 PM HST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH
SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES. LEEWARD LOCATIONS OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS WILL SEE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS BUT WILL EXPERIENCE
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. LEEWARD BIG ISLAND AREAS WILL CLOUD UP IN THE
AFTERNOONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE LOWER SLOPES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA NORTH OF THE STATE BRINGING
TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. RAINFALL
WILL FOCUS OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OVER
LEEWARD LOCATIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE LEEWARD LOWER SLOPES
OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOONS. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN ALMOST DUE EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND WINDS CONVERGING ON THE LEE SIDE OF MOLOKAI MAY
BRING SOME QUICK HITTING SHOWERS TO EAST OAHU AND CENTRAL AREAS OF
HONOLULU.

MIMIC SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOW SOME SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED AREAS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE PUSHING TOWARD THE ISLAND
CHAIN. ONE BATCH OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND AND WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE SECOND IS FARTHER UPSTREAM AND WILL REACH THE WINDWARD
AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SHOWERS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED
WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF DOWNPOUR WITH THESE SHOWERS.

AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CURRENT TRADE WIND TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS NEAR 9 THOUSAND FEET OVER KAUAI AND 10 THOUSAND FEET
OVER THE BIG ISLAND.... RADAR DATA BEARS THAT OUT WITH CLOUD TOPS
CAPPED AT 8 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET. CURRENT 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOUT NEUTRAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR NEAR -8 CELSIUS. THIS WEEKEND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING BY TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO -10 CELSIUS OVER THE
NORTHERN ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND OAHU. THE SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPS MAY
ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE VERTICAL CLOUD GROWTH AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO BREEZY E TO NE
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN AND N THRU E SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF
SITES...BUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY IMPACT PHTO...PHLI AND
PHNY.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND TO
THE SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE TRADE WINDS ALSO WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD SURF ALONG
EAST-FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL BUILD TUESDAY...AND THEN PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LIKELY
BRINGING ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF TO SOUTH- FACING SHORES. A TINY NORTH
SWELL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND A SLIGHTLY LARGER
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
JELSEMA...AVIATION








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