Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 070258
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
958 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOSS OF HEATING HAS ENDED THE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING ACROSS TEXAS FROM THE STORMS
ALONG THE DRYLINE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST
EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT IN THE SW AND COASTAL
COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER LL CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING AND
CLOSER TO THE LLJ. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE JUST LIGHT SHOWERS
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS MORNING. THINKING
THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST
OF THE SUGARLAND AREA AND BY LATE MORNING DOTTING THE HOUSTON
METRO AREA AND POINTS NORTH. WITH THE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IN
THE AFTERNOON THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE BUT 9-10C
700MB CAPPING MAY BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME WITHOUT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND A BOUNDARY SUCH AS THE SEABREEZE.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... EVENING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONE OR TWO
MAY NEAR A TERMINAL THROUGH 07/01Z HOWEVER... AND HAVE INCLUDED A
VCSH MENTION FOR TERMINALS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE TERMINALS ANYWHERE BETWEEN 05Z
AND 08Z TONIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH HEATING AFTER 16Z
THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO/ EXPECTED AGAIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. OTHERWISE... SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH STRONGER
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE W/ THE LOSS OF HEATING.
WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS AND MORE IN LINE WITH LAST NIGHTS
LOW TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT CONSIDERING WINDS WILL REMAIN UP.

SYNOPTIC SET-UP REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME GOING INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH BROAD MID LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
SCNTL MEXICO INTO E TX-LA-MS. CORRESPONDING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CARRY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE STATE THRU THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO TIME - THE FAVORED TRACKS OF THESE IMPULSES
SHOULD KEEP BEST PRECIP CHANCES WEST AND NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN PERIPHERY
(LETS SAY BRENHAM-LIVINGSTON) MAY GET CLIPPED FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
OTHERWISE WOULD JUST EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

SHORTWAVE DIGS SWD INTO SOCAL FRI AND KICKS OUT INTO THE PLAINS
LATER THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS THE RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED
FURTHER EAST WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
TO MOVE OVERHEAD GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TO COMPLICATE
MATTERS...LOOKING FOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO TX LATE SUNDAY OR
MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY STALL NEARBY AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL
TO UPPER FLOW. THIS PATTERN, IF IT VERIFIES, POINTS TO A FAIRLY
ACTIVE WX PERIOD WITH HEAVY RAIN/SVR WX THREATS ALL ON THE TABLE.
47

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CAUTION CONDITIONS DUE MAINLY TO SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
AS WELL. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  85  73  85  73 /  10  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  86  73  86  73 /  10  30  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  82  74  83  74 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45



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