Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 051300
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
800 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER MORNING WITH A STOUT SURFACE TEMPERARTURE INVERSION THAT
WILL MIX OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST FEW DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS BACK UNDER AN INCH THIS
MORNING AT 0.95 INCHES. JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO 600
FEET...WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 30 KNOTS.
THEN...WINDS BECOME VARIABLE UNDER 20 KNOTS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 25000 FEET. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 52
KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 44000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE
BALLOON ASCENDED FOR 110 MINUTES TO A HEIGHT OF 20.8 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND BURSTING SOUTH OF WAVELAND NEAR GRAND ISLAND 26 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
BASIC DAY TO DAY SH/TS WILL BE MAINLY ON HEATING AND MESO-BOUNDARY
INFLUENCES. EASTERLIES BECOMING MORE DEVELOPED WILL ALSO PROVIDE
ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SH/TS ACTIVITY AS LONG COVERGENT BOUNDARIES FORM
IN THE SYNOPTIC SFC FLOW FROM THE GULF TO ONSHORE LOCATIONS. THIS
IS HOW IT SHOULD SHAPE UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION LOOKS TO BE NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FCST. STILL PERSISTENT SE TO ESE
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODERATE
TO STRONG FLOW WILL OCCUR TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW WITH WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KTS LIKELY...STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS BUT AS WE HEAD INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE NERN GULF
RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHTER WINDS
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SCY ADV WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
TODAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/

AVIATION...ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET AVIATION FCST. EARLY MORNING FOG
STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE MS COAST AND TYPICAL PROBLEM SITES LIKE HUM
AND MCB. OTHER THAN THAT ONLY LOOKING FOR SCT CU TODAY AND MAYBE A
STRAY SHRA OR TWO. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NO.
ACTIVITIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
 SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  61  81  64 /  10   0  20  10
BTR  82  62  82  66 /  10  10  20  10
ASD  81  63  80  65 /  10   0  10  10
MSY  81  67  81  69 /  10   0  20  10
GPT  80  65  79  67 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  80  63  80  65 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ570-
     572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ572-
     575-577.

&&

$$



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