Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 180938
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
238 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
DURING THE PERIOD. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION MID WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS AGREE PRETTY WELL IN
DEVELOPING A SHORT RIDGE OVER NEVADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURIOUS
LITTLE UPPER LOW CENTER DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE FOR A MINI-
BLOCKING PATTERN. RESULT IS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A COMPLETE LACK OF DEEP RH. THE MODELS HINT AT SOME
PRECIP ON SATURDAY...BUT THE RH/OMEGA/DIVERGENCE/CONVERGENCE
FIELDS DO NOT SUPPORT ANY. LEFT POPS AT ZERO. A FEW UPPER CLOUDS
MAYBE. WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER OFFSHORE SOCAL AND DESERT HEAT
CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA...EXPECT WINDS IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY TO BECOME GUSTY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE FORECAST
PERIOD COMMENCES WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST.
ALL THE WHILE...LOOMING UPSTREAM...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS
BREWING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH THE WHOLESALE
CHANGE IN PATTERN. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS. GENERALLY EXPECTING AN
ORGANIZED LOW TO UNDER CUT THE CANADIAN RIDGE IMPACTING THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST....THE 22ND..23RD...AND 24TH. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE
ABOVE 7000 FEET. ADDED TS TO THE WEATHER GRIDS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN HAS THE PNA PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD NEUTRAL WITH ITS LATEST
RUN. WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ERODING THIS PERIOD...EXPECTING A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS NEXT 24 HOURS KWMC...KEKO...KELY...
AND KTPH. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MID 20 KNOT
RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98/97/97



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