Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 280903
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
403 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD RAIN EVENT WILL WIND DOWN TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS EAST
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MORE OR LESS MAINTAINING CURRENT INTENSITY. THE
UPPER LOW DIPPED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN FORECASTS 24 HOURS AGO...
PERHAPS BY AS MUCH AS 100+ MILES...AND WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF
SWEETWATER AT 08Z. THIS SOUTHWARD TRACK HAD A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
RAIN SHIELD OVERNIGHT. IT ALSO WILL IMPACT A WEAKENING DEFORMATION
ZONE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AXIS THAT STILL WAS SPREADING LIGHT SHOWERS
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WELL NORTH OF THE PRIMARY RAIN
SHIELD. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS EDGE THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD EAST BUT
ALSO ARE LATCHING ONTO THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS TODAY. WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO BUY INTO THE WET LOOKING HRRR RUN...WHICH KEEPS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE DAY...BUT
HAVE TRENDED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FURTHER WEST AND A BIT LATER
IN THE DAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A CLEARING AND DRYING TREND
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUT CONSIDERABLE STRESS ON THIS LINGERING
DEFORMATION AXIS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON
SHOULD NOT LEAVE ANY DOUBT ABOUT CONTROL FOR OUR AREA. NORTHEAST
WINDS ALSO WILL NOT BE DONE UNTIL LATER TODAY...WITH SPEEDS CLOSE TO
20 MPH AT TIMES. STILL FAIRLY RAW THEREFORE FOR THE END OF APRIL.
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY RETAINED THOUGH MAY BE OPTIMISTIC
IF CLEARING IS DELAYED IN THE EAST IN PARTICULAR.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF. MID 30S
EXPECTED NORTHWEST ZONES WITH UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE ON THE CAPROCK.
HEATING SEASON NOT QUITE OVER WITH. BUT WHAT A PLEASANT REBOUND
COMING OUR WAY AFTER TODAY... RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH WILL OCCUR IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AFTER TODAY UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS UPPER LEVEL LOW WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WHICH WILL IN TURN LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW.
HOWEVER...THIS SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN IN THE MODELS TO
STALL OUT OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER SOUTHWEST US TROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS TROUGH MAY THEN TAKE A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT DEEPENS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS IS
STILL AROUND TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...THIS WOULD PROVIDE
THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  36  72  43 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         62  38  72  44 /  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     61  39  72  45 /  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     62  39  73  46 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       62  40  74  47 /  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   61  40  73  46 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    62  41  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     66  44  75  49 /  20   0   0   0
SPUR          62  43  73  49 /  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     62  43  74  49 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/01



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