Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 250943
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
543 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER MISSOURI WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MAINE WILL TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY
IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE RETRACTED FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FROM SW TO NE DUE TO RISING
TEMPERATURES AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL
ALL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BY SUNRISE AS THE CLOUDS OVSERSPREAD
THE AREA.

AS OF 07Z...1001MB SFC LOW OVER NRN MAINE...DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE
AN OCCLUDED LOW...STATIONARY OVER THE PAST DAY. ANOTHER LOW IS
MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING TO ERN TN. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE CENTRAL
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY AND THE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG IT TONIGHT. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERRUN A RIDGE OVER THE OH/TN VLY AND ROUGHLY
OVERSPREAD THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA. CLOUD CEILINGS LOWER FROM NE TO
SW. RAIN HAS ENTERED SWRN VA AND WILL SLOWLY OVERCOME THE DRY AIR
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

FROST ADVISORIES WILL BE CANCELLED FROM SW TO NE AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN
AND LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

TODAY...RAIN SPREADS NORTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.
CATEGORICAL POPS BEGIN MIDDAY FOR FAR SWRN ZONES AND 90/100 POPS
SPREAD NE ACROSS THE DC METRO AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FRONT
STALLS OVER SRN VA AND BALTIMORE LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THE PRECIP SHIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...STATIONARY FRONT RETURNS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PRECIP SHIFTS SOUTH ALONG WITH IT...WITH LIKELIES LIMITED
TO THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY MORNING.  STORM TOTAL QPF
QUARTER TO HALF INCH FOR SRN TWO THIRDS OF CWA...TENTH INCH OR SO
FOR NERN MD. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...NORTH WINDS AND SOMEWHAT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SRN ZONES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. WITH A LITTLE DRIER FORECAST...RAISED MAX TEMPS TO LOW
60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...A DEGREE ABOVE MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AVG HIGH TEMPS IN LATE MAR ARE A70...LOWS M40S. IN THE XTND 70 IS
PRBLY THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR...AND LOWS SHOULD BE RIGHT ARND
NRML.

HV INCRSD THE CLD CVR CWA-WIDE/INTRODUCED RW INTO THE FCST MON
FOR THE NRN/ERN PART OF CWA. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WL BE SPINNING
IN THE GULF OF ME...AND A SHARPENING TROF WL WORK ITS WAY SWD DOWN
THE E CST INTO THE MID ALTC MON. BLO NRML HIGHS XPCTD - GNRLY IN
THE U50S...PSBLY M60S IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

WK INDUCED HIGH OVR THE AREA TUE/WED WL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
AND TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO M60S. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS XPCTD
TO DVLP OVR THE GULF STATES THU...CAUSING INCRSG CLDS IN THE MID
ATLC ALONG W/ A CHC OF RAIN. THIS LOW IS XPCTD TO TRACK NE AND
COMBINE W/ A SHORT WV DESCENDING FM QUEBEC...FORMING ANOTHER GULF
OF ME LOW. THIS ONE IS XPCTD TO FORM TOO FAR OUT TO SEA TO HV ANY
IMPACT ON THE MID ATLC OUTSIDE OF KEEPING THE AREA IN COOL NRLY
FLOW.

THE WEEK SHOULD CLOSE OUT UNDER HIGH PRES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MIDDAY AS CIGS LOWER AND RAIN SPREADS IN FROM THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM NC. FRONT STALLS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR DC METROS THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT.
IFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 KT SUNDAY.

RW/PTNL MVFR CIGS PSBL MON...THEN NO PROBS XPCTD TUE/WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS FROM HIGH BUILDING FROM THE NORTH ARE CHANNELING DOWN
THE BAY. GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 15 KT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL 20 KT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH SUNRISE. WILL ISSUE MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY AS THIS SURGE MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND A WARM
FRONT ENTERS FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT STALLS TONIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY
CHANNELING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SCA CONDS WL BE LKLY MON AFTR A CD FNT MOVES THRU THE WATERS AND
THE PRES GRAD TIGHTENS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ005-006-507-
     508.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ011-505-506.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/JACKSON


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