Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 061130
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION OVER OKLAHOMA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST...AND MAY MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HAVE
VCSH IN WESTERN TAFS FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY MID MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING WITH UPPER
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
UPPER LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW IN THE WEST SINKS SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY BUT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
STABILITY DECREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM...AS UPPER LOW
MEANDERS AROUND THE ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS LARGE UPPER LOW...WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS SUNDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS IS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND MAY AFFECT RAIN CHANCES EXITING
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND MID 80S...WITH A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     81  63  83  64 /  10  10  20  30
CAMDEN AR         83  64  85  67 /  10  10  20  20
HARRISON AR       78  62  81  63 /  30  20  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  64  83  66 /  10  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  64  84  66 /  10  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     83  64  85  66 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      81  64  83  66 /  20  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  79  61  82  63 /  20  10  30  40
NEWPORT AR        82  63  84  65 /  10  10  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     83  64  85  66 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   80  63  82  65 /  20  10  30  30
SEARCY AR         82  63  84  65 /  10  10  20  20
STUTTGART AR      83  64  85  66 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...58




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.