Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 070801
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
301 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS
HIGH WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WITH SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REMAIN ON THE
WARM SIDE AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT WITH
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 60S.

ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING INTO MAINLY
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL START TO
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

ON SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS
ARKANSAS BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE.

ON SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MOVE NORTHEAST. AS IT DOES IT WILL DRAG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY SO THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING US ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE NOCTURNALLY
ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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