Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 180444
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1244 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM SAT...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE LINGERING OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE WSW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SE. TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS...WITH LOWEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND
HIGHEST SOUTH. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LOWS FM THE UPR 50S NERN
SXNS AND LWR 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MORNING SO WILL CONTINUE SIMILAR POPS THROUGH 18Z. REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREV DISC...LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ON SAT. ALSO...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
LWR 80S ACRS INLAND AREAS WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
INDICATED. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION ACRS INLAND SECTIONS. WILL HAVE A SLGHT CHC SHRA FOR
THE MORN HOURS THEN CHC SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN DURG MAX
HTG WITH THE HIER CHC POPS ACRS SW SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...SOME WET WEATHER UPCOMING LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...

.SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE...LIFT AND GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENT
FLOW ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION. RAMP POPS UP SLOWLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY
POPS MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AS A PAIR OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF
INDICATE DRY-SLOTTING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
MONDAY...LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
CAROLINAS...EXPECT PLEASANT WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW/MID 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY 70
TO 75. ONLY PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. UPPER FLOW REMAINS LARGELY ZONAL WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN. THE ECMWF SHOWS A VERY WEAK FRONT
ENTERING THE CWA FRIDAY AND MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEP
THINGS DRY. FOR CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL KEEP THURSDAY/FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND
80...LOWS MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
TOUGH FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW...BUT THINK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE OVERZEALOUS
DEVELOPING IFR CONDITIONS. WILL NOT GO LOWER THAN MVFR AT THIS
TIME...BASED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS/NARRE/SREF. THINK CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL...THOUGH WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ISO/EWN/OAJ...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE SE STATES. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VSBY WITH PERHAPS BOUTS OF IFR IS EXPECTED AS WIDESPREAD RAIN
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO
EARLY MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. AS USUAL...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
MORNING FOG/STRATUS THAT WILL BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SAT...DROPPED SCA FOR CENTRAL WATERS WITH BUOY 41025
DOWN TO 5FT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10KT OVERNIGHT
WITH SEAS 2-5FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN CSTL WATERS.
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH WEAK LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS
LIGHT NE-E WINDS 10KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT ON SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL VEER TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS...WITH WINDS BECOMING S/SW WITH GUSTY SCA WINDS CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN...SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS
6 TO 7 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEAS FALL TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...JAC/HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...JAC/CTC/CQD/HSA


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