Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 280136
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
936 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...LOCALLY STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT-TUE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE
ATLANTIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE NORTH SWINGING WINDS
AROUND TO EASTERLY BY MORNING.  CUT OFF LOW OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND THE ASSOCIATED BROAD SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF
WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL/EAST GULF THROUGH LATE TUE.

THE MAIN ITEM IN THE SHORT TERM IS AN MCS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WHICH HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS THIS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT AN AREA OF DEBRIS RAIN TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTH
HALF OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO BRING WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO WE COULD ALSO SEE SHOWERS POPPING UP. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION THOUGH. HAVE GONE
WITH 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH...TAPERING DOWN TO 30
PERCENT IN THE SOUTH.

ON TUE...THE NEXT MCS IS SHOWN IN THE NORTHEAST GULF BY SUNRISE...SO
EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA TO START OUT THE DAY.
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG/JUST NORTH OF NORTHWARD RETREATING
WARM FRONT...SO EXPECT THAT SOME STORMS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO HOLD
TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF IN THE
MORNING HOURS.  THIS IS DEPICTED BY THE HRRR MODEL...BUT THE 18Z GFS
SHOWS THE MCS AND HEAVIER PRECIP AMOUNTS ARRIVING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING WILL BE KEY TO WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER AND
BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

IN ANY EVENT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGH TUE WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP
HOLDING DOWN MAX TEMPS AGAIN IN THE NORTH AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA TOO.

&&

.AVIATION... SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
KISM-KMCO-KTIX NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING INTO
THE REGION.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES IN THESE
LOCATIONS FROM DECAYING CONVECTION IN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THAT HEAVIER PRECIP MAY START TO SPREAD
ACROSS THAT AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF.  OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR
OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OCCURRING.

ON TUE...HIGH RAIN CHANCES ARE INDICATED AREAWIDE WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-TUE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND THEN VEER QUICKLY TO EAST
ON TUE.  SPEEDS LOOK MAY BE 10-15 KNOTS FOR A TIME TONIGHT THEN
DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AS THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF.  SPEEDS ARE FORECAST 15-20 KNOTS
LATE IN THE DAY.  ALSO EXPECT A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AND A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...VOLKMER


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