Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 260714
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM PROGNOSIS.

LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO EXIT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATER
THIS MORNING WITH RESIDUAL RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW CHANCES
OVER SOUTHERN ZONES DIMINISHING AS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ERODES THE
MOISTURE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TODAY UNDER  BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH SUB AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS REGION INTO MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADDED FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE
REGION. MODEL CRITICAL THICKNESS SHOWS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX
IN RIDGES AND FAR NORTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY...BUT COOL TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WERE FORECAST USING A
BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS...WHICH WAS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK...SO COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP...ALBEIT SMALL...IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY GIVEN
PROJECTIONS OF A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PHASING INTO THAT TROUGH.
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS WPC GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR FORECAST AS AREA OF MID DECK MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. MID DECK WILL CLEAR SOUTHERN PORTS AROUND DAWN...
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS TAKING PLACE OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT SCT-BKN VFR CU TO DEVELOP. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CLOCK AT AROUND 8 T0 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/22


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