Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 050733
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
533 PM CHST TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE COVERAGE AREA AND
SATELLITE SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. TROPICAL
STORM NOUL IS VERY CLOSE TO YAP AND EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WESTWARD. ALSO...A CIRCULATION/DISTURBANCE CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST
OF POHNPEI NEAR 5N156E WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS.
VAD GRADIENT WINDS ARE FROM THE EAST AT 15 KT AND IPAN BUOY SHOWS
COMBINED SEAS NEAR 5 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARIANAS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
MOST OF THE MODELS STILL INDICATE THE CIRCULATION NEAR POHNPEI WILL
SLOWLY DEVELOP AND START MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT
AND TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE. A SMALL SOUTHWEST TO
WEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COMBINED
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET LATE SATURDAY AND POSSILY HIGHER BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE CIRCULATION NEAR POHNPEI THIS AFTERNOON WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
MARINE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULITHI. TROPICAL STORM NUOL WILL LIKELY BECOME
A TYPHOON TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS YAP ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE WEAK CIRCULATION JUST SW OF
POHNPEI AT 5N156E WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE IT WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND START MOVING TOWARD NORTHWEST
BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A CIRCULATION JUST SW OF POHNPEI AT 5N156E...
WHICH IS JTWC INVEST 93W...AND A WEAK CIRCULATION FARTHER EAST NEAR
2N178E. WEATHER CONDITIONS AT POHNPEI AND CHUUK WILL BE UNSTABLE IN
THE COMING DAYS WHILE INVEST 93W REMAINS NEARBY. INVEST AREA 93W IS
EXPECTED TO START MOVING TOWARD NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AND
WEATHER SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT POHNPEI AND CHUUK FOR NEXT
WEEK. RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER PERSISTS AT KOSRAE AND MAJURO FOR THE
NEAR TERM...BUT MODELS INDUCATE A PATTERN OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE
WILL HELP TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE CHUUK DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED WITH EASTERN MICRONESIA BECAUSE
OF SIMILAR SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS.

YAP AND KOROR...TROPICAL STORM NUOL WILL LIKELY BECOME A TYPHOON
TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS YAP ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR YAP AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULITHI.
HAZARDOUS SEA AND SURF ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE AT KOROR WHILE NOUL
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS YAP STATE. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON/DEVITA/W. AYDLETT



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