Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 271130
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
630 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A strong upper level low is currently moving slowly across the
southern Plains this morning.  Southerly flow ahead of this feature
is trying to advect moisture into the forecast area, but persistent
northeasterly flow at the surface--courtesy of high pressure over
the western Great Lakes--is keeping much of this moisture at bay.
As of 2 AM, a thin area of convection has developed from south of ICT
into northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas, seemingly tied
to the 850 front and associated WAA and low level f-gen.

This convection may try to sneak into the far southwestern corners
of Cherokee and McDonald Counties this morning, but most of
southeastern Kansas/southwestern Missouri should remain dry.
Somewhat better chances for showers/isolated thunderstorms will
begin to kick in later this afternoon into tonight, as the center of
the upper low gets closer to the region.  Even then, however,
precipitation potential will largely be confined to areas south and
west of a Pittsburg to Branson line.

For the rest of the forecast area, a combination of somewhat chilly
air aloft and cloud cover moving up from the south will help limit
temperatures today and Tuesday, with highs generally around 60 over
southwestern Missouri, to the the low to mid 60s over central
Missouri, where cloud cover won`t be as extensive.  Overnight lows
in the mid to upper 40s will be the norm through Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

Rain will skirt the Missouri/Arkansas state line through the day
Tuesday, before the upper low finally moves east of the area and is
absorbed into a larger upper level trough over the eastern CONUS.
This will result in a warming trend for the region, with
temperatures on Wednesday warming into the upper 60s to around 70,
with low to mid 70s then expected from Thursday through the
weekend.

Dry conditions are expected from Wednesday onward, and quite likely
through the remainder of weekend.  The only potential fly in the
ointment will be a weak shortwave traversing the northern Plains
Friday and Saturday, which will try to push a weak cold front south
toward the region.  A few of the global models are spitting out some
very light QPF over central and northern Missouri during this time,
but overall moisture return ahead of this feature is in question.  Even if
this QPF comes to fruition, it shouldn`t amount to more than a few
light showers or sprinkles.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Closed 500mb low will drift across west
Texas today and along the Red River tonight. Northern periphery of
the associated precipitation shield will be suppressed just south of
the terminals due to a dry low level easterly flow. This will also
keep ceilings in the VFR category through 12Z Tuesday. It is
possible a few showers could approach the KJLN or KBBG aerodromes
tonight as the low inches closer. However, confidence is low of this
occurring given the dry easterly flow. Later shifts will have to
monitor for this possibility. Otherwise, higher winds aloft will mix
down by mid morning resulting in gusts of 20 to 25 knots through the
day today and then settle down to below 12 knots after 00Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Raberding






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