Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 260439
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
938 PM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE FINAL IN A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. BEHIND THE SYSTEM THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO OFFSHORE AND MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE ON SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY. LIGHTER WINDS AND A WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING MARINE
LAYER STARTING MID WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

RAINFALL WAS QUITE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING WITH A FEW STATIONS
REPORTING OVER ONE INCH. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT
FOR ALL THE REPORTS (ALSO HIGHLIGHTED AT THE TOP OF OUR WEBSITE).

THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND VORT LOBES RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PUSHING INTO FAR SE CALIFORNIA ATTM AND WILL MOVE
INTO ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. VERY STEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS RIGHT ON THE
HEELS OF THE TROUGH AND SOME EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT AND A FEW ADDITIONAL
BATCHES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE INLAND EMPIRE AND MOUNTAINS OF SAN BERN...RIVERSIDE...AND SAN
DIEGO COUNTIES (NOTE SHOWERS DRIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA ATTM). ALSO...WITH SUCH STEEP GRADIENTS ONGOING
OVERNIGHT STILL EXPECT SOME STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SLOPES. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING. OBSERVATIONS AND 88D DATA INDICATE
SNOW LEVELS HAVE FLUCTUATED BETWEEN 6000-7000 FT MSL.

ON SUNDAY GRADIENTS AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY AT TIMES. FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOME GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH THE PASSES AND
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE VALLEYS.

&&

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE WARMEST DAY IS
TUESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURE REACH 18 TO 20C OVER SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WITH LIGHT WIND. TEMPS WILL REACH 80S ON THE COAST AND
OVER 90 INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASE SLOWLY ON WEDNESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES COOLING WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND
LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE DESERTS STAY HOT. THE TREND ON THE 12Z
GFS AND ECMWF RUNS IS TO BRING A DEEPER TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS WOULD BRING A MUCH STRONGER ONSHORE WIND FLOW AND COOLING...AND
DEEP CLOUD MARINE LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...

160330...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT TO BKN CLOUDS GENERALLY 2-3000 FEET MSL
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS AND VIS DROPPED LOCALLY WITH SHOWERS...BUT IS
IMPROVING AS SHOWERS MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS ARE
DECREASING SOME AS WELL...BUT WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM IN SOME AREAS.
EXPECT SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET MSL AFTER 260600Z IN NORTHERN
TAFS AND BY 262000Z AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

MTS/DESERTS...COASTAL SLOPES AND RIDGES OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND OCNL
RW- WITH DECREASING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS 15-25 KT OVER THE
RIDGES AND ONTO THE DESERTS SLOPES. VIS IN THE DESERTS. WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND CLOUDS DECREASING MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

830 PM PDT...NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. A LARGE SHORT-
PERIOD WIND SWELL AND ALONG WITH THE WIND WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS
THROUGH TONIGHT CREATING A HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT. THE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH SUN MORNING...BUT SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT PDT FOR
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
     VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 10 PM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
     BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE
     ISLAND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
     BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...TARDY
AVIATION/MARINE...PIERCE



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