Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 041031

531 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

/12Z TAFS/

Stratus will continue to stream north over all of West Central
Texas through the next 24 hours. MVFR ceilings at all terminals
will not lift to VFR until around noon. MVFR ceilings will return
to all terminals around midnight. Convective activity is expected
over all of the area by this afternoon and PROB30 groups have been
inserted in all TAFS for later this afternoon and into the evening
hours. Southeast winds will gusts to around 20 kts for most of the
24 hour period.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

(Today and Tonight)

An upper low over southern California this morning will lift
northeast today and will be over the four corners area by tomorrow
morning. The dryline will remain over far West Texas through tonight
with periodic disturbances in the southwest flow aloft passing over
the forecast area. The latest NAM is showing an upper short wave and
associated vort max moving over the forecast area through the
afternoon hours with the best chance of associated convective
activity south of Interstate 20. The chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue over most of the area through the night.
Highs this afternoon will mostly be in the upper 70s with a few 80s
under cloudy skies. Morning lows tomorrow under continued cloudy
skies will be in the lower 60s.


(Tuesday through Sunday)

Models continue with consistent solutions for rain chances this
week and into next weekend. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF continue to
move an upper trough axis, which we`ve highlighted over the last
several days, into the New Mexico area by tomorrow morning. With
this trough axis likely positioned with a negative tilt,
divergence aloft, over West Central Texas, will significantly
enhance the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Thus, as
we`ve been indicating for several days, Tuesday and Tuesday night
continue to look to be the best periods for rain chances. Also,
model forecast soundings present precipitable water numbers around
one and one quarter inch Tuesday afternoon. Thus, thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce rainfall amounts in the one
half to one inch range. What`s more, severe thunderstorms remain a
strong possibility, especially Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
Storm Prediction Center has the western half of our area in a
slight risk area from sunrise Tuesday morning through sunrise
Wednesday morning. The primary threats, at this time, look to be
large hail, damaging winds, and deadly lightning. However, flash
flooding is possible too. As this upper trough axis slides
northeast of Texas on Wednesday, another major trough develops
over the west coast. The resulting southwest flow aloft over Texas
will continue to create the potential for minor disturbances to
produce showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the long



Abilene  79  62  76  63  79 /  20  30  60  60  40
San Angelo  82  63  77  63  81 /  30  30  50  40  40
Junction  80  64  78  65  80 /  40  20  50  40  40




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