Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 051947
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
347 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN AN
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OFF THE ATLANTIC, COMBINED WITH A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH, WILL AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY SPORADIC, AND LIGHT, SHOWERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WESTWARDS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND THE VERY SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DRYING MID-LEVELS
OVERNIGHT (PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SUB-TROPICAL LOW
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST) WILL YIELD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NIGHTTIME
TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN EASTERN
AREAS (AROUND VALDOSTA) THAT RECEIVE RAIN, BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
DID NOT PUT THIS IN THE WX GRIDS.


.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING THE FORECAST
DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH, BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
THE LOCAL AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE CWA WILL BE UNDER AN AREA OF RIDGING
BETWEEN TWO LOWS, ONE IN THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL MOISTURE
INCREASES ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 20 PERCENT ON MONDAY TO 30 PERCENT ON TUESDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
09Z TOMORROW FOR ALL TERMINALS. THERE COULD BE A VERY LIGHT SHOWER
OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AT TLH AND VLD, BUT THIS WILL NOT IMPEDE VFR
CONDITIONS. AFTER 09Z TOMORROW, VLD COULD SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEV STRATUS/PATCHY-FOG, BUT THIS SHOULD CLEAR
UP BY 11/12Z WITH THE SUNRISE AND INCREASED MIXING. ALL OTHER
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH PATCHY 4-
5KFT CUMULUS FIELD AND SOME CIRRUS AT 25KFT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND WILL DECREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
HIGH TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS WILL YIELD FAIRLY HIGH
DISPERSION VALUES AROUND 90 OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AND RIVERS RECEDING,
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGY CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   63  88  61  89  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
PANAMA CITY   66  83  64  82  66 /  20   0   0  10  10
DOTHAN        60  85  60  86  63 /  10   0   0   0  10
ALBANY        60  85  58  86  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
VALDOSTA      61  87  61  87  62 /   0   0  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    63  88  60  87  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  67  83  65  84  66 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DOBBS/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...DOBBS/HARRIGAN
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS/HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



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