Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 260129
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
929 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING IR SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY ARE SHOWING A
BAND OF CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS ON TRACK TO PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND NATURE COAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...HIGH
SHEAR AND FAST STORM MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MEAN
THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS BORDERING ON SEVERE. BY SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30-40 PERCENT FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND STALLS OUT.

OVERALL...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND TAMPA BAY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH
KTPA...KPIE...AND KLAL HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE VICINITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING TO THE NORTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD
INCLUDING THE TAMPA BAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  77  86  76 /  20  10  30  40
FMY  91  76  90  77 /  20   0  10  10
GIF  90  73  88  73 /  20   0  20  40
SRQ  86  77  84  76 /  10   0  20  40
BKV  89  71  87  70 /  20  20  30  40
SPG  86  77  85  76 /  20  10  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE



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