Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 091942
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-111945-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
242 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A WET MARCH...RAINFALL HAS BEEN ABSENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS SINCE LATE MARCH. DUE TO THE RAINFALL MOST
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCED DURING THE FALL AND WINTER...SHORT TERM
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ABSENT OR VERY MINIMAL. WATER RESTRICTIONS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO THE LONG TERM IMPACTS
OF THE DROUGHT. SOME RANCHERS WERE STILL REPORTING THAT STOCK
TANKS REMAIN LOW DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION. RIVERS AND LAKES HAVE
REMAINED STEADY AFTER SMALL INCREASES IN MARCH. DESPITE THE EXTRA
MOISTURE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS...MOST LAKES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS REMAIN WELL BELOW THE CONSERVATION POOL LEVELS.
LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A
MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES... RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS
ARE VERY LOW AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE
FREQUENT RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING A 50-60
PERCENT CHANCE THAT A WEAK EL NINO WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FALL. EL NINO LIKE IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION WITH ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL AND
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS
ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER PATTERNS TOO...SO WE SHOULD
NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO
POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID APRIL 7TH AND ISSUED ON APRIL
9TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED UNCHANGED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
(D4) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST
LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXTREME (D3)
DROUGHT STATUS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU ARE CURRENTLY IN EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT
STATUS.

CURRENTLY 36 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND 4 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS LOW TO MODERATE. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT
OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF APRIL 9TH...A COUNTY-WIDE BURN BAN WAS IN EFFECT FOR ONE
COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTY WITH AN ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BAN WAS:

VAL VERDE

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

ATASCOSA   HAYS
BANDERA    KARNES
BASTROP    KENDALL
BLANCO     KERR
BEXAR      KINNEY
BURNET     LAVACA
CALDWELL   LEE
COMAL      LLANO
DEWITT     MAVERICK
DIMMIT     MEDINA
EDWARDS    REAL
FAYETTE    TRAVIS
FRIO       UVALDE
GILLESPIE  WILLIAMSON
GONZALES   WILSON
GUADALUPE  ZAVALA


RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE APRIL 9TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED THE
FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

0-200       200-300     300-400

ATASCOSA    BLANCO      BANDERA
BASTROP     EDWARDS     DIMMIT
BEXAR       FRIO        KERR
BURNET      GILLESPIE   MAVERICK
CALDWELL    KENDALL     REAL
COMAL       LLANO
DEWITT      MEDINA
FAYETTE     UVALDE
GONZALES    VAL VERDE
GUADALUPE   ZAVALA
HAYS
KARNES
KINNEY
LAVACA
LEE
TRAVIS
WILLIAMSON
WILSON

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
INDICATED GRASSES WERE GREENING UP...AND TREES AND BRUSH WERE
BUDDING AND LEAFING OUT. MORE RAIN WAS NEEDED...BUT THE REGION WAS
EXPERIENCING THE BEST SPRING IT HAS HAD IN YEARS. FARMERS WERE
CULTIVATING FIELDS FOR SPRING PLANTING...FERTILIZING PASTURES AND
APPLYING HERBICIDES. CORN PLANTING WAS WRAPPING UP. LIVESTOCK AND
WILDLIFE WERE IN GOOD CONDITION WITH IMPROVED NUTRITION FROM THE
SPRING GREEN-UP. THE RECENT RAINS ALSO PROVIDED MUCH NEEDED FORAGE
FOR SHEEP AND GOATS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2015 TO MIDNIGHT APRIL 8, 2015 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2015       NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY      10.37        7.50       +2.87         138%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   9.82        7.83       +1.99         125%
SAN ANTONIO        7.20        6.32       +0.88         114%
DEL RIO            3.41        3.07       +0.34         111%

FOR APRIL TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 0.21 OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
THIS IS 0.12 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.33 OF AN INCH. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR APRIL TO DATE IS 73.2 DEGREES. THIS IS
4.2 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 69.0 DEGREES.

FOR APRIL TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED
0.03 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.43 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL
OF 0.46 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR APRIL TO DATE IS 73.0 DEGREES. THIS IS
6.4 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 66.6 DEGREES.

FOR APRIL TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 0.02 OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. THIS IS 0.48 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.50 OF AN INCH.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR APRIL TO DATE IS
72.6 DEGREES. THIS IS 6.1 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 66.5 DEGREES.

FOR APRIL TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
RECEIVED 0.04 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.50 OF AN INCH BELOW THE
NORMAL OF 0.54 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR APRIL TO DATE IS 71.2 DEGREES.
THIS IS 6.8 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 64.4 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED APRIL 8 AND VALID APRIL 16 THROUGH APRIL 22 WAS INDICATING
STRONGER SIGNALS FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2015 THROUGH JUNE 2015...
CREATED ON MARCH 19TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

DUE TO THE CONTINUED PERIODIC RAINFALL MOST LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION SINCE THE BEGINNING OF
JANUARY. THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS CAUSED LAKE LEVELS TO RISE
SLIGHTLY. IT WILL TAKE MANY RAINFALL EVENTS TO GET THE LAKE
LEVELS BACK TO NORMAL CONSERVATION POOLS.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUES.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE AND LOWER SAN ANTONIO BASINS. THE UPPER COLORADO
BASIN REPORTED BELOW NORMAL (10-24 PERCENT) FLOWS WITH A SMALL
AREA OF NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) ACROSS TRAVIS COUNTY. THE LOWER
COLORADO, GUADALUPE, MEDINA, NUECES AND FRIO RIVER BASINS REPORTED
MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW AVERAGES.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF APRIL 9TH...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                1088.3           -28.7
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2               974.5           -89.7
CANYON LAKE          909                 897.9           -11.1
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                 780.2           -10.8
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                 988.1           -31.9
LAKE TRAVIS          681                 628.4           -52.6

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT      2014 LEVEL   DEPARTURE   APRIL     DEPARTURE FROM
  LEVEL      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2014   AVERAGE      AVERAGE

 644.0 FT      639.5 FT     +4.5 FT    667.2 FT     -23.2 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT IS
CURRENTLY IN A NO DROUGHT STATUS.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 2
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 2
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 2

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND APRIL 23 2015 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS 78130
830-606-3617

$$


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