Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 032048
ESGCO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UT


                      SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
             FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WITHIN COLORADO

                         APRIL 1, 2015

The 2015 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is below normal at
this time for the Yampa/White, Upper Colorado mainstem, Gunnison,
Dolores and San Juan basins.  Snow typically accumulates into April,
therefore conditions may change before the runoff ends.

Currently, there are no sites forecast to peak at or above the flood flow
at any exceedance levels.  In general, below average peaks are expected
across much of western Colorado.  Keep in mind specific forecast
procedures and flood flow levels do not exist for all streams.

March precipitation was much below average across western Colorado with
the overall basin preciptation amounts ranging between 50% and 75% of
average.  Seasonal precipitation is between 75% and 85% of average.

April 1 snow water equivalent is much below median, ranging between 55%
and 65% percent, in all basins except the Upper Colorado mainstem where
it is 80% of median.  The large drop in percent median snow water
equivalent since March 1 is due to a combination of much below average
precipitation and much above average temperatures which caused an early
start to the melt.

Many sites in western Colorado recorded monthly streamflow volumes in the
top 5 of their period of record for March, with quite a few recording their
highest March volumes ever.

The April 1 volume forecasts for the April through July runoff period
dropped significantly from the forecasts issued March 1 and most sites
are forecast to be below to much below average.  The only exception is in
the headwaters of the Upper Colorado mainstem above Kremmling, where near
average runoff volumes are forecast.

Although spring temperatures affect the pattern of snowmelt runoff and
consequently the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows also roughly correspond
to volumetric flows. It is also important to keep in mind that an extended
period of much above normal temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt
period can cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any year.

A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts are available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php

A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=peak

MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS
LOCATION                   FLOOD     FCST   FORECAST FLOWS
                            FLOW     DATE      90%    75%    50%    25%    10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YAMPA - STEAMBOAT SPRINGS   5930 2015-04-01   1700   1900   2200   2900   3200
ELK - MILNER, NR            5750 2015-04-01   2000   2300   2600   3000   4000
YAMPA - MAYBELL, NR        21200 2015-04-01   4500   5000   6000   7000   8000
LITTLE SNAKE - LILY, NR     -999 2015-04-01   1300   1600   2200   2600   3200
YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK      -999 2015-04-01   5500   6500   8500   9500  10500
WHITE - MEEKER, NR          8324 2015-04-01   1500   1600   2000   2300   2700
SNAKE - MONTEZUMA, NR       2180 2015-04-01    250    300    350    400    550
TENMILE CK - FRISCO, N TE   1530 2015-04-01    500    550    650    800   1000
STRAIGHT CK - LASKEY GULC    410 2015-04-01     60     70     85    100    130
EAGLE - GYPSUM, BLO         6550 2015-04-01   1700   1900   2400   3000   4500
COLORADO - DOTSERO, NR     16900 2015-04-01   4100   4400   5600   7500  10000
CRYSTAL - REDSTONE, NR, A   3130 2015-04-01    850   1000   1200   1450   1900
ROARING FORK - GLENWOOD S  17200 2015-04-01   2400   3000   3500   4700   5700
COLORADO - CAMEO, NR       26000 2015-04-01   7500   8500  10500  14000  18000
EAST - ALMONT               3170 2015-04-01    800    930   1050   1300   1500
NF GUNNISON - SOMERSET, N  13870 2015-04-01   1000   1350   1650   2100   2500
SURFACE CK - CEDAREDGE      1410 2015-04-01     50     65    100    130    190
GUNNISON - GRAND JUNCTION  19520 2015-04-01   7000   7500   7500   8000   8000
DOLORES - RICO, BLO         1780 2015-04-01    450    540    630    700    820
DOLORES - DOLORES           7130 2015-04-01   1250   1400   1700   1900   2400
SAN MIGUEL - PLACERVILLE,   3190 2015-04-01    600    730    800    950   1050
COLORADO - CO-UT STATE LI  46200 2015-04-01  12500  14000  16500  21000  26000
SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS   5000 2015-04-01    650    770    930   1130   1330
ANIMAS - DURANGO           10200 2015-04-01   2000   2280   2600   3100   3300
ANIMAS - FARMINGTON         8810 2015-04-01   2000   2300   2800   3600   3800


CBRFC/Alcorn




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