Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 061541
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

VALID 061700Z - 071200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL MAINE...

MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. AN AREA OF LOW/MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE CASTS DOUBT ON WHETHER VERTICAL
MIXING WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ENHANCE WIND/RH BEYOND CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE DECIDED TO RECONFIGURE THE
CURRENT CRITICAL DELINEATION SLIGHTLY WHERE GREATEST CONFIDENCE
EXISTS THAT CRITICAL WIND/RH CRITERIA WILL BE MET. LACK OF RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY FUELS ACROSS
BOTH ELEVATED AND CRITICAL AREAS IN NEW ENGLAND.

AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT AREA HAS ALSO BEEN ADDED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. 20-30 MPH SURFACE WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ATOP RELATIVELY DRY FUELS AND IN CONJUNCTION
WITH 15-20 PERCENT AFTERNOON RH VALUES ACROSS THE AREA.

..COOK/GLEASON.. 05/06/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0237 AM CDT WED MAY 06 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LEAD WAVE EMBEDDED IN A LARGE-SCALE WRN CONUS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
NEWD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE AN
UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL CYCLONE MOVES SWD ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO NRN CA.
AN AMPLIFIED MIDLEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE ERN
CONUS...WITH STRONGER POLAR WLYS SHUNTED NWD ACROSS ERN CANADA AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF MAINE AS DRY OFFSHORE FLOW IS MAINTAINED
ACROSS THE REGION.

...MAINE...NRN NH...
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AS
STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL WLYS REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE REGION.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ACROSS WRN/CNTRL MAINE...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARATIVELY
WARMER THAN NRN MAINE AND RH VALUES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE WEAKER ACROSS SRN/DOWN EAST MAINE INTO NRN NH...BUT
RH VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT ARE STILL PROBABLE.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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