Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FNUS71 KCTP 241839
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR PA-130 FIELD DAY...PA BUREAU OF FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
239 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1425 EDT ON APRIL 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. VERY DRY AIR AND A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND UP TO 25 MPH
AT TIMES WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THIS HIGH...CREATING AN
ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.

WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...AS THE RIDGE SLIDES RIGHT OVER THE STATE. FAIR WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

 &&

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 26.
MAX HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
                    25 MPH...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 7 MPH LATE.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400-6900 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1500-2500 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21 TO 29 MPH...DECREASING TO 15 TO 18
                    MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............17  17  17  16  13  12  14  20  22  21  17  16
WEATHER COV.........                                ARS ARS ARS ARS
WEATHER TYPE........                                FST FST FST FST
TSTM COV............
TEMP................41  42  42  40  38  36  35  34  33  32  31  29
RH..................36  37  38  42  47  53  56  59  62  65  67  70
20 FT WIND DIR......NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......17  16  14  13  12  10  9   8   8   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....25  20  20  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......6.9 6.2 5.4 4.7 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....29  29  28  26  25  24  23  22  21  18  17  15
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........5   5   5   4   4   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. AREAS OF FROST EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-3300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3900-4900 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............17  21  22  22  23  23  25  30  32  32  33  33
WEATHER COV.........ARS ARS
WEATHER TYPE........FST FST
TSTM COV............
TEMP................29  30  30  34  39  43  45  48  50  49  48  47
RH..................69  67  66  57  50  44  42  41  39  39  39  39
20 FT WIND DIR......NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......7   7   7   8   8   8   8   7   7   7   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.4 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....14  13  13  13  13  13  12  9   8   8   8   8
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   5   5   5   4   4   4   5   5

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/ROSS/EVANEGO
REQUESTED BY...JAKE NOVITSKY
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20150424.PA130.01/CTP



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