Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 030757
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
357 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 00 UTC TAFB NWPS VALUES FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH LIGHT TO
GENTLE BREEZES WITH 2 TO 3 FT ARE NOTED BY BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE DRY
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NE GULF TO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY BENIGN
WEATHER. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE TROPICAL MOISTURE
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE INTO THE SE
GULF...ALLOWING FOR INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE
GULF BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TO BUILD. THE
RESULTING INCREASED GRADIENT ALONG WITH TROUGHING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND SE GULF WILL ALLOW FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
FETCH AND DURATION OF THE E FLOW AGAINST THE FLORIDA CURRENT WILL
RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT OVER THE SE GULF OFF THE NW COAST
OF CUBA ON MONDAY. THE GRADIENT RELAXES BY TUE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH DAMPENS OUT...LEAVING GENERALLY
MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS MOST THE BASIN THROUGH THU WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF AND 1-3 FT IN
THE NE HALF. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE NW GULF BY WED
AHEAD OF LOW PRES FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL
ALSO PULSE TO 20 KT ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE NW PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 00 UTC TAFB NWPS VALUES FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT REACHING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TODAY PRIOR TO BECOMING A
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH BY MON MORNING. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AFTER THE FRONT WASHES OUT. MEANWHILE FARTHER EAST THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO A SERIES OF
STRONG UPPER IMPULSES NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THAT THIS WILL INCREASE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH WED.
ASSOCIATED WAVE HEIGHTS BUILD 8 TO 11 FT TUE...THEN UP TO 12 FT
WED AND THU. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
TAFB NWPS FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER MOST PARTICULARLY WITH THE POSSIBLE
FORMATION OF LOW PRES IN VICINITY OF BAHAMAS.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO EASTERN CUBA WILL DRIFT SE
BEFORE STALLING THROUGH TODAY AND BECOMING DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. HIGH PRES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH STATES IS SHIFTING EASTWARD
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...EVENTUALLY BUILDING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS N OF 22N BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE
DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY...CURRENTLY ONLY 10 TO 15 KT OUT OF THE
NORTH. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 8 TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL
OVER MOST OF THE ATLC WATERS NE BAHAMAS. MOST OF THIS WILL SUBSIDE
TO LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FORECAST ISSUE FOR TUE THROUGH THU CONTINUES TO BE THE
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SOME
DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES IN MODEL OUTPUT REGARDING THE TIMING...POSITION
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES. THE GFS APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO
SUFFER FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WHICH IS LEADING TO A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE ECMWF WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A MUCH WEAKER LOW
LOCATED MORE TO THE SW CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY WED
MORNING...LIFTING N TO 31N77W BY EARLY FRI. THE ECMWF IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE UKMET WHICH SHOWS A MORE
EASTERLY TRAJECTORY. NEEDLESS TO SAY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH THIS LOW AND THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE ECMWF SOLUTION. ELSEWHERE MODERATE SE FLOW PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH/LOW.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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