Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 302138
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/30/15 2138Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2115Z HEEPS
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LOCATION...S PENNSYLVANIA...W MARYLAND...VIRGINIA...E WEST VIRGINIA...
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ATTN WFOS...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...
ATTN RFCS...MARFC...SERFC...
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EVENT...UPDATE TO PREVIOUS SPE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2145Z-0045Z...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...MOST RECENT IR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN COOLING
CLOUD-TOPS AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION/DEVELOPMENT INVOF BLUE RIDGE IN
RESPONSE TO INITIAL VORT LOBE ROTATING NWRD THRU OH NOTED IN PREVIOUS
SPE AND LLVL CONVERGENCE WHICH IS EASILY SEEN IN CONVERGING CLOUDS IN
VIS SATL IMAGERY. GOES SOUNDER INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST
TO THE S ACROSS CENT NC BUT THERE ARE STILL CAPE VALUES APPROACHING
1000 J/KG ACROSS S CENT VA IN AREAS THAT HAVE REMAINED NEARLY CLOUD
FREE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE HAS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN
THE REGION GENERALLY DUE TO LLVL ERLY FLOW AND 15-20 KT 85H ESE WINDS
SEEN IN VWP DATA AS GPS OBS  INDICATE PW VALUES JUST BELOW 1.0" IN NRN
VA/WRN MD. EVEN STILL...THIS IS GENERALLY NEAR/BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE REGION. ERLY LLVL FLOW IS NOT NECESSARILY STRONG BUT AS IT CONTINUES
INTO THE EVENING THE INCREASED MOISTURE FLUX MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHT UPTICK
IN RAINFALL RATES. BEST LLVL CONVERGENCE STILL REMAINS WITHIN LEE TROF
AXIS SET UP ON LEE SIDE OF BLUE RIDGE...AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
CONTINUED WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT UNDER LARGE SCALE DEFORMATION ZONE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLOWLY PROPAGATING/MERGING CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
THIS DECREASE MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN WHEN OBSERVING THE DECREASE IN LTNG
STRIKES IN RECENT NLDN PLOT. EVEN STILL MULTIPLE VORT MAXES CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND MID-UL CIRCULATION...ONE SEEN IN WRN/CENT KY AND ANOTHER
MOVING SWRD THRU CENT IL...AND THESE PIECES OF ENERGY SHOULD IMPACT THE
AREA INTO THE EVENING EVEN AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TRANSITIONS TO MORE
STRATIFORM SHOWERS. THIS PERSISTENT RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ALREADY OCCURRED SUCH AS AT KLKU WHERE NEARLY 0.5" OF RAINFALL OCCURRED
IN 20 MINUTES.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4032 7841 3953 7748 3809 7773 3667 7919 3723 7981
3835 7934
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