Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 270442
SWODY2
SPC AC 270441

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLGT RISK FROM SRN LA TO THE FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

...CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES...

SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY
AND EJECT EWD DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...EWD ALONG THE GULF
COAST.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE
NWRN GULF BASIN WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO TRACK TO NEAR
THE WRN TIP OF THE FL PANHANDLE BY 29/00Z.  IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL ADVANCE INLAND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE DUE
TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR SUBSTANTIAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NRN GULF
BASIN.  IF AN MCS EVOLVES OVER THE NRN GULF...AS LATEST GFS
SUGGESTS...THEN AN EFFECTIVE FRONT OFFSHORE MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT
INLAND.  HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE SEVERE PROBS A BIT NEAR THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODIFIED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ADVANCING INLAND.  GIVEN
THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED
SEVERE...POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..DARROW.. 04/27/2015



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